| The real estate market is of obvious periodicity, but acute cycle fluctuations, Super-cooling and overheating of real estate market will do harm to our economy.Based on the Real Estate Cycle Theory and the economic Early-Warning technique, this thesis built the two-dimensional Real Estate Early-Warning System with both measure function of the Indicator Signal Method and forecast function of Business Cycle Survey, simulated the real estate cycle with this model, in order to measure alarm degree and forecast market trend. Further more, author established early-warning principles aim to different cycle phases, found the reasons and bring forward corresponding countermeasures via the reason list and countermeasure library, help to consummate the policy countermeasure mechanism, so as to relax the cycle fluctuations, lead real estate market developing healthily.On the basis of the empirical analysis of HangZhou with the two-dimensional early warning model, this thesis draws the conclusion that HangZhou real estate market is of something overheating, people's confidence dropped as well, but the price is still rising. And bubbles will keep expanding according to historical market trend.For the real estate cycle phase of HangZhou and the reasons lead to overheating, author suggests that upon the principle of discouragement, government should tap new sources of financing and husband existing resources, standardize real estate exploitation. And adjust supply structure, eliminate the traffic bottleneck, so as to insure available supply. At the same time, economically affordable housing should be accelerated to affect price directly, gambling should be limited, and Real Estate Data Collection System should be Established. |
