| With the development of socialism market economy in our country, real estate, which is highly related and has strong force to other trade economy, has already become the pillar of our national economy. It makes great potential contribution to GDP now. Real estate investment is a main component of that in fixed assets, and one of main motive force to national economic developments. The significance to our national economy of the real estate is outstanding day by day. In 2002, because the increase of investment was too fast in some areas, the land supply was excessive, the price rose rapidly, some abnormal phenomena such as "overheated" "abnormal heat" and "structural problem" appeared in some degree and serious risk existed in real estate market. "Watch out for the Chinese real estate bubbles" is a focus question to some people and it is necessary to set up real estate early warning system in real estate market.Based on the principle of economic cycle, the characteristics of real estate cycle fluctuation in China and four factors that influence real estate cycle fluctuation are probed in the thesis. The early warning system of real estate is also set up according to the early warning indexes of the real estate and the value section and weight of every index. Finally the characteristics of real estate cycle fluctuation in Wuhan market are analyzed. According to the characteristics of real estate cycle fluctuation in Wuhan market, 16 early warning indexes are chosen, the situation of real estate market in Wuhan was divided into "cold, cool, normal, heat, overheated" five grades. Using the factor analysis to establish the weight of each index, the thesis sets up the early warning system of real estate of Wuhan, and makes pre-warnings of 2003 and 2004 of real estate market in Wuhan. |
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