| With the development of the finance internationalization, more and more financial crises have occurred in the world. Just taking the bank crisis for example, there have been more than 112 bank crises taking place in 93 countries since 1970's. (Caprio & Honoham, 2000). Nowadays, Chinese financial system, especially our banking system, is also confronting grim situation of financial crisis. There is an old Chinese saying:＂We should prepare well before it rains rather than dig a well when feeling thirsty＂. Precaution is much more important than resolution when dealing with bank risk and bank crisis. Many foreign researches have shown that there are some symptoms of correlated economic factors' becoming unusual before bank crisis. Therefore, researching the rules of the economic variations and establishing an early warning system of bank crisis is one of the important measures to prevent the bank crisis, which can help us find out and discern the risk timely and provide the financial institution and supervisor with the basis of bank crisis settlement. Whereas, China has not founded an integrated and efficient early warning system of bank crisis. In addition, China is transiting from planned economy to market-oriented economy, which makes the risks of our banks more special and complicated. Under this background, the author chooses this topic as her thesis for Master's degree. This article is about how to set up an early warning system of bank crisis that fits the existing conditions in China.The thesis can be divided into three chapters:Chapter 1 gives some relative theoretical analysis on the early warning system of bank crisis. Firstly, this article reviews three relative theories about the banking system's inherent fragility which leads to risks and crisis of banks. This point is common to both domestic banks and foreign banks. Secondly, this article states the particular situation of China's finance. Chinese economy is in the course of transition now. On one hand, more and more risks have accumulated and been exposed. On the other hand, for the reasons of regimen, framework and consciousness, the expression and characteristics of the risks of Chinese banks are different from those of foreign commercial banks which are under the complete market-oriented economy. Some risks are covered by the warranty of state credit. People are insensitive even to exposed bank risks. Many people are not aware of the risks existing in our banks, believing that our banks won't run on as long as our country is stable. That's why our banks are still firm, although the rate of bad property has exceeded 20% and the rate of capital has been far below 8%. Therefore the early warning system of bank crisis we try to erect must be international and standard as well as fitting the real situation of our country. Finally, this article defines the concept of early warning system of bank crisis and analyses the significance of establishing it.Chapter 2 takes an overview of the varied early warning systems of bank crisis that have been set up in western countries (including prompt-correcting model, bank-rating warning model and mathematic-statistic-analyzing warning model) and the researches which have been done domestically. Many developed countries have established relatively integral risk warning systems, whereas China is far behind from that. So it is necessary for us to found our own strict and efficient early warning system of bank crisis as soon as possiblewhich fits the real situation of our country to prevent bank crisis. Chapter 3 is the most important part of this thesis, in which the author tries to establish our own early warning system of bank crisis. Although there have been many researches on warning systems, there are many defects in those models. Besides, Chinese economy and financial system is in the course of transition, which induces some particular problems. Therefore, we cannot adopt the western models without any modification. We must establish a model, especially about the... |
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