Shan Medical Hospitalized Patients Drug Use Dynamic Evaluation And Prediction

[Objective] With the medical reform in our country and the development of health insurance system, how to limit the increase of medical expenses becomes a hot topic. The major factor in the rapid increasing of medical expenses is the quick increase in drug uses. The paper analyzed the drug use data of patients in our hospital from 2003 to 2008, then discussed the current percentage of drug revenue and its trend in the 3rd degree and grade as well as effectiveness of the control measures. The paper also discussed the successes and drawbacks of the control measures in our hospital. ARIMA model is used to analyze the percentage of drug revenue and total revenue series data; the results provide dynamic evaluation and prediction of the percentage of drug revenue thus facilities scientific and effective long term and short term management. It also provides our medical workers with rational suggestions thus improves the drug use quality and alleviates patients' burden. The paper also provides theoretical references for solving "expensive medication" problem.[Approach] The data from Jan. 2003 to Dec. 2007 was extracted from the database and SPSS was used to assist the analysis. Trend of the time series was estimated and ARIMA model was used to depict and forecast for the coming 5 years the percentage of drug revenues and total medical revenues in our hospital.[Result] The drug revenues account for 42% of the total adjusted revenue of our hospital. The lowest monthly drug revenue could be as low as 38% of the total which suggests effectiveness of the control measures. Due to the drug cost control measures and the increase of total medical revenue contributed by increased demand, the percentage of drug revenues is decreasing. If national standard for calculating total revenues was used which includes some other revenues into the total, the percentage of drug revenues would be even lower. The control results are quite satisfactory among our nation's the 3rd degree and grade hospitals, suggesting our hospital's more effective measures in recent years. The ARIMA (0,1,1) (1,0,0) ¹² model not only describes the trend of the change in percentage of drug revenue, but also accurately predicts the conditions in the future. provides good guidance for drug uses and revenue predictions in our hospital.[Conclusion] Percentage of drug revenue is well controlled by national health policy and two-year control measure in our hospital. This paper provides theoretical guidance for revising control measures, rationalizing drug use, devising more detailed management system and using seasonal control measures. The ARIMA model used in this paper fits well to the data and has important practical values. It will be a good reference for similar the 3rd degree and grade hospitals in terms of decision making and predictions.