| Objective: To describe and analyze the trends of cancer epidemic in Qidong from 1972 to 2001, and examine epidemic characteristics and determinants associated with the changes in cancer incidence. Percent Change (PC) ,Annual Percent Change (APC) and contributions were estimated to predict the decreasing or increasing trends. To explore the cancer incidence ranging in the thirty years and utilize varieties of models to forecast trend towards 2010 in the city of Qidong , Jiangsu and provide baseline data for its control and prevention.Methods: The new cases and deaths of cancer in Qidog from 1972 to the year 2001 were coded according to ICD-9. Incidence of cancer was calculated by groups of calendar year, gender and age, and further the secular trends of cancer during the thirty years were analyzed. Cancer incidence data collected by the Qidong Cancer Registry during 1972 to 2001 was used in the analysis to percent changes(PC) and annual percent changes(APC).APC were estimated by means of a linear regression of the logarithm of the incidence trend in adjusted rates into site-specific contributions to the overall rising or decreasing trend. Using data from the cancer registry office in Qidong, we attempted to reveal the trends of cancer incidence by analyzing the time-series about trends extrapolation, exponent smoothness, Box-Jenkins model etc. In the meantime, we also compared the prognostication precision, endow differ power, andestablished assembled forecast model. According to Kaplan-Meier, cancer survival rate was analyzed for evaluation.Results Totally 58937 new cancer cases(male:37731 , female:21206) were reported in Qidong from 1972 to 2001. Averagely, the crude and age standardized incidence rates of cancers were 175.09 per 100000 and 121.46 per 100000. For males, the corresponding rates were 226.85 per 100000 and 154.27 per 100000; For female, the rates were 124.53 per 100000 and 86.52 per 100000. Crude rates for cancer incidence had been increasing during the 30 years. However, age standardized rates for incidence remained stable. With the age growing elder, cancer incidence rates rised rapidly. At forty groups, the rates exceeded the average. The peak age specific rate of cancer incidence was in the age group 60-6 5 (China age-standardized rate), the rates of male and female were 643.39 per 100000 and 342.23 per 100000.In the last 30 years, the top 3 cancers by incidence rate were: liver cancer, stomach cancer, lung cancer. For male, the top 5 cancer by incidence rate were liver cancer (90.38 per 100000), stomach cancer (42.45 per 100000), lung cancer (35.23 per 100000), oesophagus cancer (12.58 per 100000) and colorectal cancer (7.24 per 100000). For female, the rankings were liver cancer (27.33 per 100000), stomach cancer (23.57 per 100000), lung cancer (13.55 per 100000), galactophore cancer (11.46 per 100000).By the analysis of PC and APC, the decreasing rates were observed for the cancers of stomach, oesophagus, Nasopharynx, skin, colorectal among both male and female in Qidong from 1972 to 2001. The increasing rates among male were the cancers of colon, rectum, pancreas, lung, prostate, urinary baldder, kidney, brain, leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's disease. But the increasing cancers among female were colon, rectum, pancreas, lung, urinary bladder, galactophore, ovary, brain, Non-Hodgkin's disease and leukemia. The time changes of above more cancers are statistical significant.Analysis results of models showed that there had been a rising trend of lung cancer from 1972 to 2001, which will still be on the increase in the future. The incidence is expected to be 40 per 100000 in 2010, approach to neighbor megalopolis' level. The rate of male and female attain to 70 per 100000 and 20 per 100000 in 2010.The incidence of male and female will have a 30 per cent and 18 per cent increasing separately in 2010,compared with that of 2001 .Survival rate analysis results showed that one year survival rate of malignancy over 50 per cent have Nasopharynx cancer, Galactophore cancer, cervix uteri cancer, ovary c... |
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