Time Series Analysis Of Children Fall Injury Based On The Hospitalization Information

ObjectThis research analyzed the basic information, the medical expenditure and the hospitalization time distribution of children who were in Wuhan Children's hospital because of fall injury during 1993-2004, in order to reflect the demographic and epidemiologic character of fall injured children in Wuhan, to ascertain the long-term trend and seasonal variation, to review the change of medical expenditure in the past 12 years, and forecast the developing trend of medical expenditure. This research would develop valuable information from the Hospital Information System (HIS), and offer reference to the prevention of fall injury and the hospital management.MethodThis paper adopted describing method, X-11 seasonal adjustment program, ARIMA(p, d, q) model, et al. The general character and the medical expenditure of fall injured children are described, by such indicators as mean, frequency, percentage, statistic chart, and so on. X-11 seasonal adjustment program analyzed the seasonal variation and long-circle trend of fall injured children. ARIMA(p, d, q) model analyzed the change of the medical expenditure in hospital, and forecasted it. The data material was from the Hospital Information System of Wuhan Children's Hospital. Result(1)There were 5748 fall injured cases in Wuhan Children's Hospital during 1993-2004, boys were 3884 cases, girls were 1864 cases, the average gender ratio was 2.08:1. The gender ratios were between 1.88~2.26:1. With the increase of living years, the gender ratio was going up. Fall injury occurred in the low age segment. Patients aged 0 to 2 years old were the majority, which were 1838 cases, patients aged 3 to 5 years old were 1541 cases, patients aged 6 to 8 years old were 1141 cases, patients aged 9 to 11 years old were 760 cases, and 15 to18 years old were 71 cases, with the increase of living years, patients were dropping off. Patients which felled from high were 1793 cases; patients which slipped up from flat were 3955 cases. Boys felled from high were more than girls. The majority patients who felled from high were under 5 years old; the majority patients who slipped up from flat were under 8 years old. (2)The medical treat expenditure kept increasing from 1993 to 2004, the structure of the medical expenditure had variety, but the total trend keep constant. The average expenditure of fall injured children in hospital rose from 797.54 Yuan to 2365.46 Yuan, and the average increase rate was 10.39% each year. By ARIMA(p, d, q), the study made out a time series of medical expenditure of injured children in hospital from 1993 to 2004, and established the best model ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12, which formula was B 1?B12 Yt =?1.11968+1?0.76458B1?0.83880B12et.This model forecasted that the average medical expenditure of 2005 is 2401.63 Yuan, the expenditure of 2006 is 2487.74 Yuan(.3)In total, the number of injured children in hospital was increasing yearly, and had obvious seasonal variation and long-circle trend. By analyzing the cases in hospital by season, it was found that the majority were occurred from April to October; in May and September, the numbers of fall injured children were the highest; in December, January and February, the numbers were the lowest.SuggestionsThe hospitalization of fall injured children had obvious characters which were changing constantly with time progressing. This information could help government or related departments establishing intervention measure to avoid or reduce fall injury of children; and it could help medical institutions grasping the character of fall injury of patients; the result would advance the efficiency of health resource allocation. The forecast of the medical expedience would offer some reference to control it. There were lots of data in HIS, but most of them were not used. This study tried to use time series analysis and acquired expected result. In HIS, out patient amount, occupancy rate, demand of medicinal materials, et al were time series, by analyzing and forecasting them, the reference can be offered to the hospital management to adjust the resource and work plan reasonably.