Mixed Weibull Distribution And The Individual Housing Loan Prepayment Model

The personal housing mortgage loan business of China's commercial banks began in 1998 and developed rapidly ten years. However, along with the rapid development of personal housing mortgage loans, some risks evident increasingly, such as the risk of personal housing mortgage prepayment. Therefore, researching housing mortgage prepayment behaviors have a significant actual mean to the development of commercial banks. The in-depth studies of the issue are conducive to determine a variety of digital features of personal housing mortgage loans, which can help banks to determine the future funds, made a reasonable operating funds plan, and also help banks to determine the payment of prepayment.Individual housing loans in China and the West prepayment mortgage prepayment have different motives. On the other hand, domestic housing loans business development event is short, the appropriate data are hard to get. Therefore, the domestic researches mostly remain in the qualitative analysis; cannot do deeply qualitative analysis on the impact factor. Therefore, this article will consider the current situation and focus on the repayment period of loan repayment and the percentage of prepayment amount of the share of the total loan amount rather than on factors affecting it.ShiFang, who used Weibull distribution to research our country's mortgage payment problem and proved that using Weibull distribution to estimate the personal housing mortgage loan prepayment time have a better effect. In this article the author extended the Weibull distribution to mixed Weibull distribution. This paper proved that double mixed Weibull distribution fit better than the Weibull distribution for the same set of samples, which also guarantees the feasibility of this article. On the other hand, the paper drew a percentage histogram of the total amount of early repayment of the loan amount and repayment period, and comprised the two histograms with two double mixed Weibull distribution density function. Results ensure the feasibility of this article from the other hand. Finally, this paper obtained the share of the prepayment amount of the percentage of the total loan amount histogram and the dual mixed Weibull distribution function of repayment period by means of graph and maximum likelihood estimates.