Oil And Gas Supply Modeling Approach And Software Implementation

The prediction of oil and gas reserves and production is a scientific method to predict and evaluate a district's oil and gas resources based on some certain principles, standards andmath models. The method's aim is to find out the oil and gas resource potential, development of energy strategy for national economic and social development planning. In Conventional oil and gas reserves and production forecasting,We usually use Weng's model to represent "life cycle"-type prediction model.and now,this phenomenon still dominated in Macro predition.With the more and more complex situation of the world energy,Countries in the world explore and improve the method of prediction,so,Energy supply model are emerging in some developed countries,they are modeling large national energy system.From the perspective of energy supply capacity to consider the prediction problem of energy those energy system combination of economic factors, bring in affecting real production reserves and production changes of various factors.In response to these circumstances,This article based on a lot of research work, reference EIA's documentation,use multiple regression analysis,Matrix calculation,econometrics computer software design and petroleum engineering's theory to establish basic concept to OGSM and research a sub-model--lower's principle,then developed a soft to domestic oil and gas field related scholars on reserves and production forecasts and new ideas.In the study, for "how to consider the impact of various factors in predition" problem, this paper based on a lot of research and summarize, Analysis the current domestic and international oil and gas supply model is divided into "life cycle" type, "reserve-production ratio" control type, and based on large energy system forecasting model. Several prediction models of the above functions for comparison and found that large energy systems OGSM based forecasting model can not only better the introduction of factors but also accreate in prediction is relatively high. The next step is the analysis summary OGSM function in the NEMS in the hierarchical structure and location of OGSM the role of the various sub-module will focus on screening and comparison, choose a representative of significance with a sub-module in principle, structure and Solution focus on analysis. In the solution of the analysis model for model regression analysis methods related autocorrelation problems, this paper uses econometric classical assumptions used in the model difference method to eliminate autocorrelation solutions to Chuantong OLS method of the estimated failure problems. At last, design and development appropriate software,and then using EIA data obtained as given to verify the correctness of the algorithm, the results show that the algorithm used is feasible.