Research On The Scale Of China's National Debt

Since the recovery of national debt which issued domestically in 1981, China's economic system reform has pushed forward and economics has developed in a high speed. At the same time, the scale of national debt expanded by and by. The first expansion came from 1994 when the financial deficit can't solve from the central bank.In order to avoid adverse impact of Asian economy crisis in 1997, China expanded the deficit positively by issuance of national debt bonds to keep the economic development steadily. The new world economy crisis from 2007 forces the government to adopt the policy that expands the scale of national debt bonds. So the financial deficit will come to￥950 billion and have to issue￥950 billion national bonds. This is the most increase of national debt from the founding of the People's Republic of China. Therefore, the scale of national debt expanded rapidly, and it attracted notices of the society.In this dissertation, the scale of national debt refers to the domestic debt of China, including issuing scale and the accumulating scale which can't pay back now. In generally speaking, the two factors are direct proportion. With the increasing of the scale of national debt, the risk and benefit have changed. We should hold a proper scale that not only get the positive effect but also reduce the financial risk. The proper debt scale means a rational range, but not a number which according to the whole economy situation,policy and the effect of national debt. Based on the demonstrational analysis and threshold analysis of the issuing scale and accumulating scale of the China's national debt, the dissertation analyze China's national debt scale and put forward to issue policy of appropriate scale of them.There are four chapters in this dissertation. Chapter one introduces the research purpose, scope and meaning, the development of national debt theories both in western countries and China. Chapter two take a theoretic analysis of national debt scale and bring forward the concept of proper debt scale.Chapter three weighs the scale of national debt from actuality. First we describe the process of China's national debt, then analyses it from two angle of view. The one is burden ability which adopt some index and comparing with western developed countries, the another is using efficiency which discusses the function and benefits of debts through some index, such as the marginal cost and return. Then draw a conclusion what problems with the scale of national debt. Chapter five is the policy suggestions about national debt; it puts forward national debt policy of appropriate scale cooperating with fiscal policy and financial policy.