| In recent years, as the development of China's capital market, the trends that survival of the fittest and the bankruptcy mechanism of listed companies has gradually established become clear, the listed company's financial early warning analysis and therefore subject to broader attention. Financial distress is the result of poor corporate financial operations, made a series of potential crisis. Correctly predict corporate financial distress, for the protection of the interests of investors and creditors, for the operators to guard against financial risks, for the government authorities monitor the quality of listed companies and the risk of securities, are of great practical significance.Financial warning is based on corporate financial statements, business plans and other relevant accounting information,using ratio analysis, comparative analysis, factor analysis and various statistical methods to analyze and forecast the business and financial activities, to find the potential business risks and financial risks, and to warn the business operators before crisis, urging the authorities to take effective measures to avoid potential risks of loss, to play a proactive role.In this paper, the research object is listed companies of forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market, according to their financial statement data. using semi-parametric cure model and time-dependent Cox model to do empirical research on financial Risk. The semi-parametric cure model considers the possibility of existing long-term survivors, close to reality. Time-dependent Cox model avoids the shortcoming that single-phase model can not use changing trend information of the financial situation, and has comprehensive applicability. Obtained by the analysis, ROE, net profit margin, the main business income growth and asset-liability ratio have strong early-warning for financial crisis of listed companies and these early-warning indicators are of a reasonable explanation. |
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