Ganzhou Central Urban Residential Real Estate Investment Risk Assessment

In 2007, the influence of subprime crisis to the global economy is obvious, which not only affect the order of China's economy, but also block the development of real estate industry in China, making it in the low state. In 2008 Chinese government's fiscal policy and moderate monetary policy keep a steady economic growth, Although in the stage of Economic recovery, there still exist the features of investment growth and commodity sales drop drastically as well as vacancy area grow rapidly in the real estate market. The impact of financial crisis and many structural problems exist in the industry itself made all of real estate enterprises in our country will face serious test for a long period.Therefore,it is more crucial to make the analysis and the comprehensive evaluation of risk before the stage of decision-making.The paper studies the probable risks of housing system projects in the investment decision-making stage, analyze the influence of the external environment comprehensively to investment from the angle of macro and micro. Combining the current situation of center city and the overall development circumstances of residential market in Ganzhou city, Thesis establish the investment risk index system by using the factor analysis method, Then structure the model of risk decision-making founded on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,based on the AHP,which is used to definite the weight of each risk element. It draw a conclusion of the risk degree of each section in the center city and compare each of them, simultaneously put forward concrete measures of reponseing risk from the aspect of government management according to the evaluation results. The model and results provide scientific basis for real estate investors in Ganzhou city, which has practical guiding significance.