Cross-market Gold Investment Analysis

This paper studies China's gold invest markets, including spot market, future market and gold stock market. With the empirical approach, this paper analyzed the historical data of gold markets and indentify the interaction between gold spot market and future market, also studied the key element of determining the gold stock's price. And construct a gold stock yield model. Also discussed the investment strategy in sole gold market under the gold bull trend and bear trend, and construct gold investment portfolio. Last, we also make some policy proposal regarding the gold market rule.This paper focus on the trans-market gold investment, and is divided into 6 chapters:Chapter I, Introduction. Introduce the background and significance of this paper, also brief the relative domestic and international research literature together with the economic theory, introduce the author's idea of research and approach and put forward the study difficult points and some innovations.Chapter II, The Analysis of determining factor of gold price movement and features. We study the elements of determining the gold price, including the supply and demand factors for gold commodity, as well as other external factors impacting the gold price.Chapter III, The analysis of China's three type of gold investment markets. Introduce China's gold spot market, including Shanghai Gold Exchange and commercial banks' "Paper Gold", China's gold derivative market(future market) and stock market(gold mining listed company), and the scale and characteristics of those market. Analyze the available instruments for gold investment in China.Chapter IV, The analysis of interaction among all gold markets prices. Analyze the relationship between the price fluctuation in gold spot market and future market. And the determining factors of gold stock price, by constructing gold stock yield stock model by econometrics approach.Chapter V, Empirical analysis of cross markets gold investment. With the empirical analysis on historical data of three gold markets, we evaluate the single-market investment strategy and explore the construction of efficient gold investment portfolio cross different gold markets, based on return-risk approach.Chapter VI, Study conclusion and policy recommendation. Based on the study on different gold markets and the empirical analysis on the price fluctuation of these markets, we make the conclusion of this paper. And put forward policy recommendation, point out the lack of study and the direction of future research.