The Impact On Real Estate Prices Imposed By Masses' Psychological Expectations

China's real estate market has experienced several years of prosperity, now has entered the period of adjustment. That current market conditions are most people holding cash and postponing the house purchase, the real estate developers are waiting for the government to rescue the market, unwilling to lower prices or smaller price cut, with the result that trading volume is very rare, almost depressed. According to the research data can find out that now the ratio of house prices and income is too high, house prices exceed the purchasing power of people; over 75 percent of people expected the housing prices in the coming year will fall down. Among so many factors affect housing prices, the people's psychological expectations, many experts and scholars are unanimously recognized as an important factor. But an Empirical Studies about people's psychological expectations are less. Such as what dimensions of the masses' psychological expectations contain and how those psychological expectations impact on housing prices etc. issues. These contents are the article attempt to study.This paper attempts through market investigate for 350 people in Xi'an city, simply discuss and explore how the masses' psychological expectations impact on real estate prices. First of all, doing evaluate for questionnaire through the reliability testing and validity testing use software SPSS13.0. Secondly, doing factor analysis on the research data, using principal component analysis to extract, with the method of varimax to rotate, extracting eight dimension of the masses' psychological expectations: rigid demand, the relevant economic indicators, information collection and information sources, grasp of the macroeconomic situation, subjective judgments, prediction experience, conformist peer pressure mentality and outside interference etc.. After that, analyze the effect of these dimensions. Because of people come from different backgrounds, people with different backgrounds on the expected of housing prices is also significant differences. Hereafter the article analyzing the differences of people from different backgrounds at the psychological expectations' eight dimensions with method of analysis of variance. At the same time analyze what reasons cause the differences. Classify the masses' into different backgrounds mainly based the following aspects: gender, age, record of formal schooling, occupation, family structure, family monthly income, the judgment about reasonable real estate prices s in Xi'an, anticipation the future real estate price trend in Xi'an, affordable housing price limited et cetera. At last, the paper also attempts to build a simple model for the formation of psychological expectations, and use the knowledge of game theory to analyze how the masses' psychological expectations impact on housing prices. Finally some conclusions are summarized.