Yinfeng Garden Real Estate Development Project Investment Risk

The real estate industry has become a very important industry in Chinese national economy. For the real estate industry means high investment,high return and high risk,intimately link with economy,society,region and technology and faced more uncertainty, it is necessary to make qualitative and quantitative analysis in operational and concise method which can provide theoretical basis and technical guidance for scientific decision. At the same time, it is beneficial to the development of the real estate industry constructing investment system of risks management,evaluation model and supervising countermeasures which can help the real estate enterprises make accurate orientation and enhance the risk-consciousness of the investment.Firstly, there is an overall explanation of the meaning and the characteristics of"risk"and"risk management",the investment risk of the real estate development project,mutual relationships and relevant theories. On basis of comparative analysis to the classifying method on the risk of the real estate development project, synthesizing portfolio theory and different classing methods, using the CAMELS framework of the commercial bank for conference, this paper constructs a tri-layer chart about the investment risks of the real estate development project.Secondly, there is an introduction and a comprehensive analysis about Yinfeng Flower Garden: the sponsor, the location, the construction plan, the construction conditions, the architectural scheme, the financing plan. Next is a detailed calculation about the investment cost, the basic financial data and the project revenue. An overall identification and evaluation of the risks of the project is based on these data。Thirdly,this paper analyses the method and the steps of the identification of risks. According to project management theory, this paper combines the inquiry method, the financial statement analysis method, the system decomposition method and the environment analysis method with the external circumstances, the internal conditions, the time and the process, erects a three-dimensional risk identification model, and determines a risk identification bill of Yinfeng Flowering Garden project according to this model from the external circumstances, the internal conditions and the development process of the project.Fourthly, this paper has a comparative analysis to method for analyzing breakeven point, sensitivity analysis method, probability analysis method, decision tree method, export scoring method. It has also a further analysis to method of Bayes'formula, Monte carlo simulation method and the synthesized evaluation method based on Fuzzy mathematics and the analytic hierarchy process. This paper makes qualitative and quantitative estimation by applying analyzing breakeven point, sensitivity analysis method, probability analysis method and export scoring method. According to the requirement of the synthesized evaluation and the risk bill of the project, this paper sets up a project evaluation index system including three classes and fourteen index in environment, enterprise and the project. Then a quantitative comprehensive evaluation is given to the project using this evaluation index system. At last, this paper expounds the risk-response plan and the way of Risk avoidance, risk transfer, risk sustained-release, risk retention and risk utilizing, raises some means of risk monitoring such as risk chart method, risk auditing and risk early-warning, analyses the handling and monitoring of the risks and puts forward some proposals on risk engagement for the Yinfeng flower garden.