The Study, Based On Growth Trends Of The Annual Series Of Tourist Arrivals In China

Inbound tourism is quite important in our country's tourism, but in the tourism research, inbound tourism's proportion is quite low. Inbound tourist number's research hold quite a great proportion in the inbound tourism's research. Inbound tourism growth trend include historical growth trend, current growth trend and future growth trend. The accurate understanding China inbound tourism number's past and current growth trend will be helpful to know accurately China inbound tourism's future growth trend and achieve a reasonable prediction, and have important meaning to deeply understanding our country inbound tourism number's development process, to appraisal significant thunderbolt and activity's influence to our country inbound tourism number.Up to now, methods used in the articles about China inbound tourism number's growth trend that already published in our country including qualitative analysis, basic statistics method (including absolute growth, relative growth, fixed ratio growth, link compared growth), regression analysis, fractal analysis, time series methods (including auto regression model, running mean model, ARIMA model), BP neural network model, gray forecast, tourist background trend line, logistic curve, TRAMO/SEATS model, combination model comparison method and so on. The articles already published analyzed our country's inbound tourism statistical data of different time section, using many different kinds of research techniques, and obtained different conclusions.The author believed that although great degree progress had been made in research on our country's inbound tourism number's growth trend, the study still have some insufficiencies.On the study, this article firstly proposed the new theoretical model-TSETM model (Tourism System Evolutionary Theoretical Model) closely union qualitative analysis and quantitative evaluation method, then proposed mathematical model (mathematical expression) that apply this theoretical model to solution actual problem as well as the computer simulation and operation method to obtain mathematical expressions. Tourism System Evolutionary Theoretical Model's statement is based on summarizes and critique inherits the existing methods, the theories and methods include: Philosophic thinking, systematic theory, tourist area cycle of evolution theory, regression analysis method, calculus mathematical method, tourism statistical method and so on.From different angle or according to different standard, the situation which evolved into tourism system's evolution trend may be divided into different evolution stages. The way a tourism system from a stage to another stage may be change suddenly or gradually. The key of dividing tourism system evolution's stage is some key point including evolution turning point, point of discontinuity and so on. Tourism system's evolution balanced state divides into dynamic balanced state and static balanced state. According to evolution direction, Tourism system divided into benign evolution system, malignant evolution system and neutral evolution system.Tourism system's evolution trend contains: Regular curve growth trend under normal growth factor's function; regular weaken trend under normal weaken factor's function; regular fluctuation trend under regularity fluctuation factor's function; Anomalous growth or weaken trend under irregular fluctuation factor's function; Fierce growth trend under exceptionally growth factor's function; Fierce weaken trend under exceptionally weakens factor's function.Applied TSETM to the research of China's inbound tourism growth trend, the findings include: In normal years, take 1978 as a reference beginning, concrete mathematical expression to our country inbound tourism's regular curve growth number is: C_曲= - 0.0175*t~4 + 1.533*t~3 - 27.845*t~2 + 420.59*t - 337.82 (R~2=0.993043); Concrete mathematical expression to our country inbound tourism's regular fluctuate number is: R _波= 475.371391 *sin(0.489225*t - 3.852475) + 76.1744 (R~2=0.936697);Mathematical expression to regularity growth number of our country inbound tourism is: F _实(t) = F(t) + F(1978) = -0.0175*t~4 + 1.533*t~3 - 27.845*t~2 + 420.59*t + 475.371391 *sin(0.489225*t- 3.852475) - 80.7256 (R~2=0.99537).According to above mathematical expression, this article carefully analyzed growth regularity and fluctuation change regularity of our country inbound tourism's number, evaluated the influence to the inbound visitor number of China that caused by "89 dispute", "98 floods together with financial crisis" and "SARS" with avian influenza, predicted the number of China inbound tourist from 2007 to 2010, and divide the growth of China inbound tourist number into two principle period: from 1978 to 1984 and that after 1985.The key innovation spot of this thesis is: Based on the analyzing present research advances and the disadvantage of the research method in the study of the growth trend of China inbound tourism, this paper put forward Tourism System Evolutionary Theoretical Model(Abbr. TSETM)and the method how to apply it to analyze the growth trend of tourism system. At the end of the graduation thesis, the author apply it to and made a deep research in the growth trend of China inbound tourism, which containing regular curve growth trend and curve growth stage, regular fluctuate trend and regular fluctuate stage,total growth stage and forecast for China inbound tourist number in the following several years.