The Relationship Between International Crude Oil Price And Crude Oil Throughput Of Dalian Port

Since 1970s,the international oil price has experienced several shocks.The fluctuation of crude oil price has caused a series of political and economic problems.As the key node of the logistics industry,port plays an important role in the global supply chain of crude oil.As the traditional main type of bulk cargoof the port,about 90%of China's crude oil is imported by sea.There can be no doubt that the port throughput is closely related to international crude oil price.With the increasing competition between major crude oil ports of China in bonded oil market,the accuracy of port throughput prediction is directly related to port infrastructures,investment scale,operational efficiency,business strategy and development strategy.The in-depth study of the causal relationship between port throughput and international crude oil price is of great significance to port throughput prediction and development strategy making.Therefore,this paper used econometrics theories to study the relationship between international crude oil price and the throughput of DL port,and used the combined forecast model to forecast the crude oil throughput of DL port.Firstly,this paper qualitatively analyzed the relationship between the international crude oil price and crude oil throughput by analyzing the trend of historical data.Then,the causality relationship between international crude oil price and crude oil throughput of DL port,and the causality relationship between crude oil throughput of DL port and GDP was studied by Grainger causality test.The test results show that crude oil price and GDP are the Granger Cause of the crude oil throughput of DL port.Secondly,VEC,ARMA and linear two exponential smoothing model were used to forecast the crude oil throughput of DL port resopectively.Then,the combination prediction model of these three forecasting models was established to forecast the oil throughput of DL port in 2017 January.The predicted result shows that the forecasting precision of combination prediction model is much higher than three single prediction methods.It is more applicable for DL port to forecast the crude oil throughput.Finally,according to the Grainger causality test results and the crude oil throughput prediction results,countermeasures to cope with international crude oil prices change are given from the strategy level and tactics level.