Guangdong Provincial Economic And Operational Efficiency And Technological Innovation Cointegration Analysis And Forecasting

Firstly,this paper calculates the economy operating efficiency of Guangdong Province during 1990-2006 year with the aid of the DEA method. Secondly,an empirical research on the dynamic relationship between the scientific and technologic innovation in Guangdong province and the economy operating efficiency of Guangdong Province with co-integration theory and Error Correction Model and Granger Causality Test method and the other econometrics methods,using datas of four S&T indexes according with input and output.Thirdly,the Support Vector Regression method is applied to forcast the short term economy operating efficiency of Guangdong Province based on analysing the factors which affect the economy operating efficiency of Guangdong. Finally, some necessary countermeasures and advice are exhibited aiming at some shortage of the scientific and technologic innovation in Guangdong province integrating the former econometrics analysis. The major findings include:(1)There are four long and steady dynamic equilibrium relationships between the amount of S&T personnel per ten thousand,the ratio of R&D outlay in large and medium enterprise dividing GDP,the amount of patent authorized per ten thousand,the amount of exchange on technology market and the the economy operating efficiency of Guangdong province.(2)ECM model of the amount of S&T personnel per ten thousand,the ratio of R&D outlay in large and medium enterprise dividing GDP,the amount of patent authorized per ten thousand,the amount of exchange on technology market each with the the economy operating efficiency of Guangdong province shows the ability of their long and steady dynamic equilibrium relationship correcting the short term deviating is very good.(3)The conclusions of co-integration test and Error Correction Model prove that the short term elasticity of four relative S&T indexes to the economy operating efficiency is much shorter than the long term,which illuminating the short term affecting of the S&T innovation to the economy operating efficiency of Guangdong province can not reach the perfect degree for the restriction of institutional and environmental factors.(4)The result of Granger Causality test show the increase of four relative S&T value is Granger reason for the increase of the economy operating efficiency in short term,but the increase of the economy operating efficiency is nearly not Granger reason for the increase of four relative S&T value.(5)The evidence of the short term affecting of the S&T innovation to the economy operating efficiency of Guangdong province not reaching the perfect degree indicates the economy operating efficiency of Guangdong province is affected by other factors besides S&T innovation factor. Aiming at the conclusion,this research forcast the economy operating efficiency of Guangdong Province during 2004-2008 year with the SVR method combining with relative influencing factors, and that the forecasting results are rather accurate.