The Yangtze River Basin Crude Oil Demand Forecast And Transportation System Plan Study

For China, the Yangtze River area is one of the most important areas for the layout of petrochemical industry. The throughput of crude oil in this area has developed year after year. The development of the crude oil throughput sharply increased the raw materials' demand. Since the deficiency of original home resource of crude oil, the petrochemical plants along the Yangtze River have begun to seek and import iron crude oil from abroad by waterway. But this kind of transport should pass through three different areas, ocean, offshore and inland waterway, thus it makes the whole transport system of crude oil become extremely complex.For this complex transport system, traditional optimizing method can only solve the problems of single route or single transport mode. By establishing the network model, this paper investigates and analyzes the import transport of crude oil for petrochemical plants alongside the Yangtze River from the view of systems engineering. Firstly, it conducts a detailed forecast for future import volumes that based on historical data and developing plan of those petrochemical plants. Then, after investigating exterior conditions like ports and lanes, development project, economic indicator, a cluster analysis and unitary & integrate optimization and programming has been done to determine some important factors, such as volume distribution, transport mode and vessel selection, for the whole transport system. Finally, it comes out the optimum scheme of system with the idea of economic on the base of a selection of optimize plans. All these can provide useful and reasonable reference for the future development of iron ore import system around the Yangtze River.