Study Of The Status Quo And Development Trend Of The Tertiary Industry To Improve Employment

The employment is always a puzzle during Chinese social-economy development. Along with the proposal of constructing the harmonious-socialism society which is a big strategic decision, the employment question appeared in front of the people once again. In recent years, along with the speeding up of reform step, employment quantity of primary industry was saturated; the second industrial employment-absorption ability was limited and even appeared the phenomenon of labor exclusion; the tertiary industry gradually became the main stimulating-employment-growth industry. Specially, regarding stern employment situation in Liaoning Province, the tertiary industry played a decisive role in expanding employment. So, how to alleviate the employment pressure in Liaoning Province through the tertiary industry's development becomes a crucial question during the "11^th Five-Year Plan" period.This paper systematically described the present situations of the tertiary industry and its internal sections' employment-driven effects in Liaoning Province and analyzed the trend of them during the "11^th Five-Year Plan" period, then pointed out the problems. Based on the above, the paper proposed policy recommendations to know clearly how to promote the employment in Liaoning Province through the development of the tertiary industry in the future.In order to study comprehensively and scientifically, this paper explained in detail from two aspects: First, the description of the tertiary industry and its internal sections' employment-driven situation and the basic trend in Liaoning Province; Second, the forecast of employment in quantitative in Liaoning Province during the "11^th Five-Year Plan" period. Article basic structure is as follows:First chapter: introduction. This chapter pointed out the researching background and summarized the research situation about the tertiary industry's employment in domestic and foreign (the summarization to the foreigner researches were representational and wide), simultaneously, produced the research goals and innovations.Second chapter: The analysis of the tertiary industry's employment-driven effect in Liaoning Province. This chapter systematically described labor-force shift among three industries, and analyzed the employment-absorption ability and basic trend of the tertiary industry and its internal sections by three main indexes: employment proportion, employment elasticity and industrial deviation. The analysis in this chapter laid function for the next chapter, and cleared blind spots about how to drive employment-growth through the tertiary industry's development. Third chapter: Forecast of the tertiary industry's employment in Liaoning Province during the "11^th Five-Year Plan" period. This chapter effectively forecast the tertiary industry's employment in Liaoning Province from perspective of economic-driven employment based on the establishment of econometric model, and pointed out the tertiary industry's potential in solving employment problem. In this chapter, State-space Model was applied to the employment forecast for the first time, and it was verified by Co-integration Test that the long-term trend between tertiary industry's economy growth and employment in Liaoning Province did exist. Compared to the classical regression model, this method was more scientific and made the conclusion more valuable.Fourth chapter: Policy suggestions. This chapter proposed the improvement measures against the problem existing in tertiary industry driven employment in Liaoning Province, in order to guarantee or enhance the tertiary industry's employment-absorption role and achieve the unification of industrial-structure promotion and employment-structure promotion.Fifth chapter: Concluding remarks. This chapter sum up the whole paper's studies, simultaneously, pointed out the main contributions, characteristic, scarcities and improvement direction.Overall, this article's main contributions include: First, the comprehensive and exhaustive literature summary; Second, systematical description and analysis of the tertiary industry and its internal sections' employment-driven effect using the up to date data and scientific method; Third, adopting the State-space model for the first time for giving an effective forecast of the tertiary industry's employment in Liaoning Province during the "11^th Five-Year Plan" period, which achieves the greatest technique innovation of this paper.