The Total Mount Of Tertiary Industry Time Series Study In Wuhan

With continuous improvement of the socialist system in China,the Chinese economy shows a flourishing trend.The proportion of the tertiary industry and its share is increasing day by day in China.Under the stable development of the national economy background in Wuhan,we research the time series trend in Wuhan in this article and try to make a reasonable prediction about Wuhan’s tertiary industry production since 2014 in five years.This article selects the data which comes from 1978 to 2014 in Wuhan city over year in Wuhan Statistical Yearbook(2014).It regards the tertiary industry as the research object in GDP.By observing Wuhan’s tertiary industry in total year that from 1978 to 2014,we can find the law from it.Firstly,we consider to establish the trend extrapolation--modified index prediction model.Then we try to solve the model,after it,we use the model to predict the total amount of tertiary industry in Wuhan city. We observe the fitting effect model diagram,through the white noise test,we determine the residual sequence isn’t a white noise process,then judge model information is not extracted completely.So we need to improve the model.Secondly,we consider to establish ARIMA model, and use it to research the the tertiary industry in Wuhan,finally we find ARIMA(0,2,1) apply to research the Wuhan.To solve the model through white noise test to determine the model of information has been extracted fully,then we make a prediction tertiary industry total year in Wuhan.We use SAS statistical analysis software to research them in this article.Finally,we use Matlab to analyze the model of Wuhan’s tertiary industry with Logistic curve.Logistic curve model in theory through the test of the model error square, depicting the curve to fitting the Logistic curve model.And the fitting effect is relatively good,so we can also use this model to make a forecast about the total tertiary industrial production in Wuhan.The relative errors between the three models.The optimal study of Wuhan,total tertiary industry is the ARIMA model,followed by the Logistic curve model,the worst one is the modified exponential model.The three models has a guiding significance to predict the total year production in Wuhan in the future.We can also predict the development trend about the tertiary industry in wuhan in the future.And we can use Wuhan’s tertiary industry in the total year to make map time series trend of development in Wuhan and make the tertiary industry production with chart in Wuhan.In the background of Wuhan’s national economic stability, first,we fit the original time series graph of Wuhan’s tertiary industry total year from the perspective of qualitative analysis to dig out the potential information.Theoretically,we found that the development of the tertiary industry exponentially increasing trend in Wuhan,then see from a statistical point of view,we carries on the quantitative analysis to the tertiary industry total through the establishment of a statistical model reasonably.With white noise test of model,we make a comparison of each model,thus obtains the optimization model.In order to meet the rapid economic development in Wuhan,the government needs to regulate the tertiary industry’s proportion,reasonable estimation has an important strategic significance in total year GDP.The tertiary industry has a good effect to economic development in Wuhan in the future.