The Ripple Effect Of The Price Of Crude Oil In The Oil Supply Chain Study

Since the world energy completed transformation from the coal to the petroleum in 1960s, the petroleum has become valuable cargo foundation which makes economy develop and lets military force strong gradually, and has become important strategic resource which relates to the national economy development, the national political military and the diplomatic security. So, it is called"black cold"and"industry blood".As one kind of special commodities, undulation of the petroleum price is very theatrical. Since 1970s, the petroleum price has changed several times. Especially since 2004, the petroleum price has climbed stably, renewed the historical highest record many times and broken through 70 dollars each barrel. Recently, the petroleum price has recedes, but still maintains about 60 dollars each barrel.Oil price undulation, especially crude oil price undulation not only can cause on oil price and the profit undulation of each node in the petroleum supply chain, but also can affect other supply chain. Therefore, discussing inherent relations of petroleum price undulation and analyzing influence factor of petroleum price undulation can provide the theory basis for reforming petroleum price organizational and formulating petroleum security strategy.In view of two-node petroleum supply chain and three-node petroleum supply chain, the paper has established profit model of various nodes and the petroleum supply chain system separately, described ripple effect of the crude oil price in each kind of price strategy, and carried on the simulation analysis with oil price data from 1999 to 2006 of PetroChina.By the simulation analysis, the paper has obtained ripple effect of crude oil price of each kind of price strategy. By comparing with ripple effect of the same node in each kind of price strategy, the paper has obtained ripple effect sorting of each node and the petroleum supply chain system in different price strategy. According to ripple effect sorting, the paper has proposed adapted decision when various nodes and the petroleum supply chain system face the crude oil price undulation.