| Foreign exchange reserve is a very important problem in foreign exchange reserve management. Since 2001, our foreign exchange reserve has increased quickly, with the average speed above 60%. Up to 2005, our foreign exchange reserve has surpassed 700 trillion dollars, which attracts many people's attention. The rapid growth of our foreign exchange reserve takes many advantages, for example, maintaining the exchange rate of RMB stable; strengthening the ability of international pay off; reducing the risk of the exchange management system reform, and so on .At the same time, it also takes many disadvantages. The most important one is the assaulting to our monetary policy. Compared to the advantages, the disadvantage is more seriously. Going into the origin and development of the problem, we could find that the problem is contact with the sustainable growth of our foreign exchange reserve. In other words, the tendency of our foreign exchange reserve in the future directly decides the changes of the problems and the solutions to the problems. This paper attempts to forecast the tendency of our foreign exchange reserve in short-term, explore the solution to the problem in the angle of our foreign exchange reserve's supply ,that is the sustainability of foreign exchange reserve.The special condition of our country (the system of bank sells and collects foreign exchange; RMB is not a freely exchanged currency; the foreign exchange market between the domestic banks is not consummate) decides that the formation of our foreign exchange reserve is decided by the supply of foreign exchange reserve and the origin of foreign exchange reserve. In other words, the problem that our foreign exchange reserve sustain or not equates the problem that the origin of our foreign exchange reserve may sustain or not in the future. As our foreign exchange reserve mainly originates from the balance of payments, therefore, we can get the sustainability of our foreign exchange reserve through the way of... |
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