Research On Intrinsic Valve Of Manufacturing Companies Based On Rim In China

In this paper, residual income model which is proposed by Ohlson and Feltham is used to inspect and analyse the impact which the accounting information take to the stock price for 2003 to 2008 about the listed companies of manufacturing industry in our country,and the stock price deviation is revealed.This paper does the inspection for the eight sub-sectors of manufacturing industry and the all of that to analyse the condition. A small number of variables and then more variables is tested one by one.The basic accounting information is tested, to find if some actors like net assets per share, earnings per share, cash flow and residual income has relation with the stock price. Also,it is tested to some new factors like asset-liability ratio as capital structure and the scale factors which is represented by total operating revenues or total assets and the proportion of outstanding shares.The different relation between these indicators and the stock price is compared by year and by sub-industry.The results find that:(1)Net assets, earnings, cash flow and residual income is relevant to the stock price.Generally,they have positive correlation with the price.In univariate analysis,earnings has significant relation with the price,then the net assets,residual income,the last is cash flow.(2)The test between the stock price and cash flow indicates that the relation between them is unstable.And for multivariate analysis,there will be a negative correlation with stock price.We can not say the explanatory power between the net cash flow from operations and the price is bigger than aother.They hace no stable raltion.Simple statistics shows that the net operating cash flows highly relates to the price a little more. (3)Residual income has a positive correlation with the price.In this article, selected 20-year residual income and 30-year residual income has different explanatory power.20-year residual income is higher than the 30-year.The reason may be that the longer period has greater risk,and the investors prefer to short-term forcasts.(4)For sub-industry,capital structure and stock price have a positive or negative cross correlation.There is no rule to follow.But for the manufacturing industry as a whole, the capital structure has a positive correlation to the price.Though the pricing multiplier and incremental explanatory power is smaller,the capital structure can influence the value of manufacturing companies The high liabilities, the greater the value.(5)Size and the proportion of the outstanding shares have negative correlation with the stock price.The larger the size,the larger the proportion of the outstanding shares, the lower the price. On behalf of the size, the total income and total assets variables has no significant difference between them.The pricing multiplier of the proportion of the outstanding shares increases from 2005(absolute value).That goes with shareholding reform simultaneously.Indicating that the price responses to the proportion of the outstanding shares more significant.(6)Price deviation is consistent to the cycle of stock market.The deviation is less in 2004, corresponding to the low price of 2005,and more in 2006, corresponding to the high price of 2007.The deviation in food industry is more,and the less in electronics industry.We find that explanatory power of the accounting information for the stock prices has more relation with the cycle of stock market,consistent with the trend of the stock market.When for rising stock market, explanatory power is low,when the depressed market, explanatory power is high.