Intrinsic Value, Investor Sentiment And Stock Price

Since the rise of China’s capital market has overall good momentum of development, for the rapid development of the securities industry has brought unprecedented opportunities. The basic characteristics of China’s securities industry is starting late, the second is small, "Hong Yuan securities" listed so far, has 19 companies public. The a-share market as a whole over the years shows that, "the brokerage unit" is bullish benefited directly from the plate. Statistics show that as at the third quarter of 2015, excluding highest rating fund brokerage unit gains more 200%,and the worst earnings loss 54.46%. Surge in brokerage shares to fall in the third quarter and the first half of shocks, it is easy to see, closely related with capital markets brokerage income. Meanwhile, the a-share market for investors and a larger test,therefore, explore the effects of investor sentiment on brokerage shares compared to explore the impact of investor sentiment to other listed companies, its effectiveness is more obvious.China’s capital market at "emerging + transition" stage, this stage, investor sentiment is probably inevitable in determining stock prices, seriously, the shares affected by investor sentiment not only with its intrinsic value errors, but will also seriously deviate from intrinsic value, and this value from the principal for our brokerage stocks overvalued. Based on this background, paper while study investors mood on securities company shares of effect, on the, using "remaining returns model" estimates listed securities company value, in with its shares phase combined of based Shang, study valuation model results on its shares of effect degrees, then compared investors mood on shares of effect, empirical quantitative, and compared investors mood and valuation model on securities company of shares of decided role.For these purposes, based on the efficient markets hypothesis and behavioral finance theory, index theory of investor sentiment and the stock’s intrinsic value and rely on residual income model, to the end of 2006 to the end of 2014 12 9 shares of listed companies and its related data for objects, discussion on investor sentiment,brokers share intrinsic value relationships with the brokerage stocks. To explore this topic, presented 4 basic assumptions. To verify the hypothesis, based on "rising down" and "average price-earnings ratio of capital markets," acting as investor sentiment variable and a choice of three control variables: one is "scale", the second is "sales tax after the growth rate" and the third is the "Roe", results confirmed the hypothesis. Thatis, the intrinsic value of stock brokerage and brokerage stocks are related to investor sentiment, with brokerages shares were related to brokerage stock intrinsic value and the incremental value-relevance of investor sentiment; brokerage unit of intrinsic value on its shares than investors impact on brokerage stocks.This paper argues that, based on the intrinsic value of investor sentiment, the brokerage unit’s influence on its share price, Governments, regulatory authorities and investors only made precisely to promote the healthy development of the stock market,the biggest profits. Based on the part of the Government, the relevant regulatory point of view, first of all, adhering to the "people-oriented" basic regulatory concept,strengthening investor education and second, establish and improve the mood swings of the market monitoring mechanisms and to make direct policy interventions to a minimum; and, finally, to further expand the scale of institutional investors, asset business, support private equity and brokerage. On the perspective of investors, first of all, research should focus on listed companies, market fundamentals and investor sentiment change; Secondly, gradually using valuation models for investment strategymaking process, avoid "herd"; and, finally, will collect investor sentiment index as a focus for investment decisions.