Financial Evaluation Of The Tourist Attractions Of Investment Projects Based On System Dynamics

With the development of the economy and the pursuit of the spiritual life, more and more people like to travel. In recent years, as the core of tourism development projects– the project of investing tourist attractions has become the focus of investor attention. Many problems are exposed when tourist attractions project becoming a hot spot. To solve these problems, a consistent evaluation system which can reflect the characteristics of the tourism industry has become an urgent work.Financial evaluation of investment projects in tourism is a way to research the profitability, liquidity and foreign exchange balance of the projects after the complement of them from the tourism enterprises (micro) perspective. Compared with the Infrastructure projects, the project of the tourist attraction has its own complexity and characteristic. For example, tourist attractions is to provide services as the fruits of production, there is no physical form, let alone any stock; the clarifying of the construction period and operation period of the tourist attraction project was not so clearly as the infrastructure project's, it can operate at the same time it constructs; the income of the tourist attraction is uncertain, the outside changes are closely linked with the income. Above all, the financial evaluation of infrastructure project can not be applied in the projects of tourist areas.System dynamics is a theory based on the feedback control. It uses computer simulation technology as the main means of qualitative. It's a dynamic behaviour applied science to research the development of the complex system by qualitative and quantitative analysis. Traditional management methods of tourist attraction is lack of comprehensive research in market forecasts, financing investment, cost control and revenue management, But system dynamics can reflect the connections between various factors in tourist attration project system in a comprehensive and dynamic way. With the help of the advantages of system dynamics, we also use tourism lifecycle theory and scenic spot bearing capacity theory to set up a capital investment model of tourist attraction project. It provides more reasonable and accurate reference for the enterprise investment decision.In this paper, we take XH tourist attractions as an example to have the simulation for the next two decades,. Through field testing to get data and fuzzy model of the required parameters, we can get net present value index finally which is the index can judge the feasibility of project. At the same time, the paper will have the project uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis by adjusting some factors change, observing changes in index for judging the ultimate profitability of their impact on the key projects so as to support the scientific basis for decision makers, Most imortant is to know the areas of improvement and strict control of the project.