Jiangxi Nonferrous Metals Web-based Platform Technology Foresight Methods

In modern society, technology foresight plays more and more important roles in the economic growth and the development of science and technology. This paper makes a network platform of technology foresight for the technology foresight item of Jiangxi non-ferrous metal industry, studies the integration of technology foresight and network platform,and then gives scientific advices to the development of the industry for the future. It has important Realistic Significance to the conversion of economic growth mode, the selection of technical inputs, and the achievement of sustained economic growth.Firstly, this paper starts from the technology foresight's relevant concepts and circumstances, explains the developing situation and trend of technology foresight both in and out of the nation, the significance to a nation and an industry. Secondly, it discourses the technology foresight's definition and commonly used methods, and analyses the advantages and disadvantages of these methods. Thirdly, it explains that how to use the network platform supporting the collection, the disposal and the analysis system of technology foresight. Moreover, it expounds and optimizes the existing statistical method and estimate system. And then I think I elicit a better method of my own. The last but not least important, this paper expounds the network platform for the technology foresight item of Jiangxi non-ferrous metal industry, through the research and analysis of this problem, expounds the processes of the technology foresight item of Jiangxi non-ferrous metal industry, and shows that the future research direction is data mining, that is how to maximize the data utilization and fully exploit the data value. Doing this is to better provide guidance for decision-making.This paper's research object is the webifying and informatization of technology foresight's process and the estimate system of technology foresight's result. It explores a new mode of technology foresight and the different results under the different assignment principle. I want to carry out the Jiangxi non-ferrous metal industry's technology foresight with less time and lower cost, provide better reference for decision makers, find the potential of industrial development and technical progress, and thereby promote the advancement of Jiangxi non-ferrous metal industry. This paper uses the theories and the analysis methods of management, econometrics, database technology, network technology and some relevant subjects. And its content is mainly about the implement of technology foresight's webifying. The main research briefs are:(1) Our group constructs the Jiangxi non-ferrous metal industry technology foresight network platform by using web technology (ASP.NET, SQL database). The whole process is based on technology foresight and its relevant knowledge. The network platform consists of the key technology summary system, the consultation and statistical system of two rounds, the final publishing system of technology foresight and information systems. These modules instauration combine the basic theory of technology foresight with the facts of Jiangxi non-ferrous metal industry. It's more reliable.(2) Aim at the result of statistical analysis, I advance that different assignment principle will have different influences of the result of the foresight. And then I give some viable advice based on reality.This paper's innovations are:(1) Improve the traditional technology foresight's method. Put the whole process of technology foresight on a network platform so that to reduce the cost and shorten the time.(2) Do some proper amelioration to assignment principle. Consider sundry assignment principles'influence to the foresight result more general.