Time Sequence In The Power System Load Forecasting

As China's power industry development, the management of power grids tend to modernization, it deserve we pay more attention to the study of power system load forecasting. Load forecast of the electric power is one kind of the most important work in the attempter, electric-using, planning and programming etc. management departments. The improvement of the standard on forecasting technique standard can benefit the planning of the electric-using management and also can benefit arranging the electric-web run way in reasonable way and the set repairing planning, as well as the coal-saving, oil-saving and the reduce of the cost on generating electricity and fixing the reasonable programming on the power-source set up, besides it is propitious to the economic benefit and the social benefit in the electric power system. Therefore, load forecasting has become one of the most important factors in the realization of\the modernization on electric power system management.The technical method (i.e. mathematical model) of the forecast is the core point of the load forecast. As the modern science technique is developing rapidly, the technique of load forecast is continually been deepen. On the base of the introduction of the basic classify, character, principle, and the factors which may influence the burden forecast, this paper analyze the load forecast technique which is used presently in electronic system by systemic way, and it also do some analysis and compare among the load forecast which is in common use. Combining the characters of the burden forecast technique in a certain area and selecting the forecasting method which is suitable for this specific area's load character, this paper do some forecasting for this area's short-term load. This paper also combines the load forecast theory in the electric power, mathematic model technology as well as the computer technology, meantime takes advantage of the Matlab software to simulate and emulator this system and also to analyze the forecast result in systemic way.