Narrow Waterway Ship Handling Safety Evaluation

Shipping is an industry with high risk. "Safer navigation, and cleaner ocean" is not only the goal of shipping industry but is also the need of ecological balance and sustainable development of human beings. With the fast development of the world trade and the technology of navigation, a vessel is becoming larger in size, higher in speed, more specialized in use and automatic in manoeuver; the seamen are much more multinational, and some sea areas are undergoing a heavier transportation pressure. All of these make the navigation environment worse and svessels manipulating ability lower, especially in those narrow channels. So even the shipping facilities are highly advanced and the technology of navigation is greatly developed, there are still many maritime disasters happening in those narrow channels which bring great danger to people's life and cargo on board and also cause pollution to the ocean. Therefore, how to improve narrow channel manoeuver safety is always a hotly discussed question in the navigation circles. However, the narrow channel manoeuvre safety theory is not yet in full shape. Regarding this situation, the author here is trying to apply matter-element assessment method and fuzzy mathematical comprehensive assessment method to assess narrow channel manoeuver safety.The so called safety assessment is an essential part in the safety system engineering and using quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze and assess the safety problem can be counted as an important milestone in the development and perfection of the safety science. The application of mathematical methods and computing techniques into the analysis of the relationship between malfunctions and accidents is a big step forward in the progress of the safety management and management science. This is also true in the development of safety management in shipping.In the first part, according to the characteristic of assessing object and specialty of the several quantitative assessment methods, through the comparison, the matter-element assessment method and fuzzy mathematical comprehensive assessment method whose applicability has been proved in practice are selectedto be used here.And according to the reality ,the author on the base of intensive studies of other scholars' relevant research. Both quantitative and qualitative methods are utilized to analyze the internal factors and natural factors which influence the narrow channels safety.And in the second part, both quantitative and qualitative methods are utilized to analyze the internal factors and natural factors which influence the narrow channels safety. And then on the base of intensive studies of other scholars' relevant research and the reality, the author works out the assessment factors system which is applicable to single shipping safety assessment. Then the criteria for assessing each factor are developed after studying the relevant data, statistical analysis and some experts' suggestions both at home and abroad. It is on this foundation that the mathematical model of the matter-element and fuzzy mathematical comprehensive assessment is established.And the test of the established model is held to prove their correctness and applicability in MEIZHOU BAY narrow channels.The test results are consistent with the theory. So the author believes that the model could be useful to the port monitors, sea-route administers, commanders of the shipping companies and VTS and also seamen for its practical value.