Road Transport Prediction Theory

The accurate and objective prediction of the future highway transportation demand is the just foundation of the scientific transportation planning. Up till now, there are over one hundred methods of transportation prediction, which mainly adopt both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The traditional prediction methods attach importance to the analysis about the historical transportation statistics so as to foresee the trend of transportation development. However, the results of these predictions are not very successful for the reason that the transportation quantity does not equal the demand. The actual transportation is the organic match of transportation demand and supply, as well as the partial equilibrium of the demand and supply under specific transportation situations that is not only the quantitative equilibrium but also the qualitative equilibrium. Unfortunately, the theory of traditional prediction always ignores this essential relationship, which results in the shortage of a systematic prediction. Therefore, the primary problem confronting the predictors in the field of transportation does not lie in how to explore the new statistical prediction model but in the establishment of a systematic theory about prediction.This thesis starts from the introduction of the equilibrium of transportation demand and supply, assesses this kind of equilibrium by the criteria of "adaptability", analyzes the premises of causing corresponding transportation under certain equilibrium, finally predicts the trend of equilibrium of demand and supply by the analysis of the changes of these preconditions for equilibrium and then calculate the increase of future demand. The paper intends to establish the theoretic basis for transportation prediction through the analysis of the equilibrium of the above two decisive elements of transportation market. It is worth to point out that the article is not the negation of traditional prediction theory, but the supplement and improvement of it.