The Right Bank Of The Tongzilin Hydropower Rerouted Highway High Slope Monitoring And Forecasting System

Slope engineering is a highly ubiquitous geotechnical engineering project. The construction of mountain highway developed rapidly in recent years and the road grade is high together with its excavation is significantly large, which inevitably result in Deep Cutting and High Embankment in route design, creating more and more man-made slopes. Slope stability condition is related to the security of human' life and property, and even related to a country's economic and social development. Slope stability is relative while its instability is absolute. Even if a stable slope, it can change into unstable state affected by the long-term adverse factors such as geological processes and human activities, and ultimately lead to landslides. Therefore, slope safety monitoring and prediction is of great significance. The contents of this article mainly includes:(1) This paper introduced the route change project of the right bank slope in Tongzilin, including the characteristics of the slope, the meteorological and hydrological conditions, geological conditions, etc., and analyzed the location of the monitoring sites that used to monitor the displacement of the high slope in the right bank of Tongzilin hydropower station, with the objective to monitor slope deformation and analyze the slope stability. We also designed the monitoring scheme that monitoring slope safety using three-point displacement meter and analyze the results. This monitoring program is currently used the Jatropha Plantation Project, and the results show that this scheme is feasible.(2) This paper studied and analyzed the basic theory of gray system, and developed the GM (1,1) model with unequal time lapses basing on GM (1,1) model, and changed its initial values. Then we applied the model in Tongzilin hydropower station, and validated this model by designing different predicting schemes. The results show that the model is robust in predicting and it can monitor the slope displacement, especially in the medium-short term prediction.(3) This study developed the predicting software utilized to monitor monitor the displacement of the high slope in the right bank of Tongzilin hydropower station. This system contains the basic information of the lope, and it can also manage the observation data together with predicting.First,the user can take this software as a database management system that can input new data, query, delete, and modify the data; whilst analyze the data and mapping. Second, it has the function of predicting the slape displacement.We design different predicting sckemes in order to validate this software and the results showed that the software is reliable.