The Research On The The Middle East To America Bay Crude Oil Martime Transportasion Model Comparing

Crude oil is an important strategic national resource, which is directly related to the national economy. Along with the high-speed growth of global economy in recent years, the demand for crude oil is grown increasingly. The U.S. is one of the largest global consumers of crude oil, while the Middle East one of the most important oil producer is the world. Therefore, research on the crude oil transport model from the Middle East to U.S. Gulf is necessary. How to choose a good transport mode which is efficiency and economy is important for improving crude oil shipping from the Middle East to U.S. Gulf.Firstly, this article introduces the researches relevant to fleet programming and fleet decision-making, and also summarizes and analyzes the status of crude oil shipping from the Middle East to U.S. Gulf, which including the demand analysis and forecasting of crude oil shipping, waterway routes and ports, routes and ship class analysis. By using ARMA models and the original data of crude oil shipping capacity from the Middle East to the U.S. Gulf between 1995 and 2009, this article forecasts the data of crude oil shipping capacity from the Middle East to the U.S. Gulf between 2010 and 2012, which supports the optimization of transport model.Secondly, this article uses quantitative and qualitative method to contrast three models which include VLCC model, Suez model and VLCC/pipeline model in view of their safety, efficiency and economy. At the same time, this article puts the three models into horizontal and vertical contrast to provide optimization theory for crude oil route from the Middle East to U.S. Gulf.Finally, by establishing optimization linear programming model of crude oil shipping route from the Middle East to the U.S. Gulf, this article selects the most optimized model. This article turns the problem of fleet programming into linear programming, and aims at the minimized cost of annual total operating to establish the objective function.This article takes the example of a new fleet in certain company to get the planning project of the fleet in the next 3 years, based on which discusses the dominant factors of crude oil shipping from the Middle East to the U.S. Gulf by setting up multi-projects. This article combines the solution result of the model, and finally comes to the optimal combination of crude oil shipping routes from the Middle East to U.S. Gulf, which is hoped to provide reference and guidance for the crude oil marine transportation companies.