Risk Analysis Of The Fta-ahp And Mlec

In the process of mankind's production and life hazard exists always, in order to control the hazardous sources and degrade the hazardous level, we must discover hazardous sources and recognize the level of hazard ,and know the weak chain of hazardous factors. So , analysis of system's hazardous level is necessary. In actual analysis of hazard, though there are some quantified methods such as FTA, index method and so on, we will face the difficulties that selecting data in trouble or there being no data at all.This paper made use of basic knowledge of hazardous sources identification and hazardous level analysis in the process of Yellow phosphorus production, analyzed the appearance and function of the hazardous sources, put forward hazardous sources structure-model based on two category hazardous sources and using this model could make system hazardous level analysis convenient.This paper put forward variation- track-intersection-cause model and the view of track according to regulation and variation can initialize mankind's fault and machine's fault, so, variation can be considered as a potential accident cause, if manager and operator were not used to the variation of mankind or machine in the process of production, made plan wrong or mankind's fault, and caused mankind's unsafe activity and unsafe condition, unsafe activity and unsafe condition will lead to a accident when they were in the same place and intersected the track.On the basis of the analysis above, according to the current situation of production in Yunnan Province and statistics analysis of a Yellow phosphorus factory's accidents which happen recent years ago, made use of hazardous sources structure and variation-track-intersection-cause model to analyze the hazardous level qualitatively in the process of Yellow phosphorus production.Connecting AHP with FTA and using AHP to analyze the logic relation of accidents' causes, then taking top event as target layer, smallest cut set(or smallest path set) as standard layer, elemental event as program layer to construct AHP's layer structure, built comparison matrix. This method achieved quantified analysis problem of accident in the condition of no related data, then this method was used to analyze Yellow phosphorus production system accident.Author considered the index of the factory's supervisory control on hazardous condition, put forward MLEC to rank factory's hazardous level, reflected the actual condition of factory, this method is simple, practical and easy to be spreaded.