Shenzhen Urban Ecological Security Assessment And Prediction Model Study

In recent decades, population increase, lack of natural resources, environmental pollution and ecological destruction problems which have become increasingly highlight, hinders the development of economic and the improvement of the quality of people's lives seriously. Ecological problems have been caused by the crisis is not only environmentally safe problems, but the ecological security issues. Ecological security study will provide the way to the realization of the sustainable development. It will also provide the guidance for the formulation of sustainable development strategy and the management of ecological security. It is therefore necessary to study.Based on ecological security, ecology and evaluation of relevant theory, with the Shenzhen City regional environmental characteristics, in the comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of a variety of evaluation methods based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the Shenzhen Municipal 1997-2006 ecological safety standards conduct a vertical evaluation, and use stepwise regression analysis to forecast the ecological level of Shenzhen next 15years. This paper includes five parts:The first part is to build the index system. According to a set of principles, this paper designs a ecological security evaluation index system model. To avoid overlap between the indicators, the paper uses the correlation coefficient method to screen them, and ultimately establishes a more perfect urban ecological security evaluation index system.The second part is to establish the city's ecological security evaluation standards. Based on a great deal of information available and comprehensive analysis of various standards, establishes a city's ecological security evaluation criteria.The third part is to evaluate the city's ecological security level.The paper selects eight cites(Tianjin, Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Shenzhen, Dalian, Guangzhou, Chongqing)as example, and use four comprehensive appraisement approach which are grey relation degree method, matter element extension assessment, fuzzy overall evaluation and principal component projection to make horizontal estimation of ecological security level for these cities in 2006.According to the results, analyzes the different of ecological security level among these cities, tests the rationality of evaluation index system, at the same time, compares these appraisement approaches and selects fuzzy overall evaluation which is better than other appraisement approaches to make vertical estimation of ecological security status for Shenzhen City from 1997 to 2006 and analyzes the change trend of ecological security level of Shenzhen City.The fourth part is to forecast the ecological security level of Shenzhen City. Based on the vertical evaluation results which are calculated of Shenzhen from 1997 to 2005, the paper uses the stepwise regression analysis model of SPSS 14.0 to construct the city's forecasting model of the ecological security. And it also uses the results of 2006 to confirm the model. On this basis, forecasts the ecological security of Shenzhen for the next 15 years.The fifth part is to propose the countermeasures of improving the ecological security situation of Shenzhen city. Based on the results, with the specific reality of Shenzhen City, against the limiting factor, proposes appropriate measures.This paper features and innovations:(1)Based on the optimization theory, takes into account the subjective preferences and objective information, proposes a comprehensive weight assignment method.(2)According to the ecological security evaluation of eight cities, tests the rationality of evaluation index system, at the same time, compares these appraisement approaches and selects fuzzy overall evaluation to make vertical estimation of ecological security status for Shenzhen City.(3)The paper uses the stepwise regression analysis model of SPSS 14.0 to construct the city's forecasting model of the ecological security, and forecasts the ecological security of Shenzhen for the next 15 years.