The Relationship Of AQI And Economic Development In Wuhan,and The Forecasting Of AQI

During the high-level process of industrialization development nowadays, the "fog" known as street hearing, the whole country talking about hot word, air quality index, also called AQI, is the quantitative description of air quality dimensionless index, it can be a good measure of a regional air pollution levels.According to the evaluation method of the AQI value,the greater is the degree of air pollution in the region, the greater is the AQI.According to statistics, in 2014, the GDP of Wuhan was 1.006948 trillion yuan, whichi led wuhan to enter "Trillions of GDP Club"in the cities of China, becoming the first one in central China’s cities and third in 15 deputy provincial cities. In addition, on February 28,2015, the central Wen Mingwei at the great hall of the people officially awarded the title of "National Civilized City" to Wuhan. Wuhan is in the rapid development of economy and culture,at the same time, the environment is not optimistic.This paper studied by the method of factor analysis in wuhan city from 2013 to 2014 years of twelve months of economic development, the comprehensive evaluation of months economic conditions.And then through the eight months of AQI value of Wuhan from March 2014 to October 2014,using the correlation analysis model, to explore the relationship between AQI in wuhan city and industrial capability, Finally, ARJMA model is set up, using 391 days in wuhan city to AQI value for short-term prediction, analysis the next thirty days may develop trend of AQI value.This paper uses the software of SAS9.3, SPSS 17.0 for statistical analysis.Through the factor analysis method to economic development of Wuhan months synthetically score ranking,from September 2013 to October 2013 (except in January and February,2014) this 12 months, the economic development of Wuhan is the highest scores in December 2013, the lowest was in March 2014. From the point of the results of correlation analysis in Wuhan of AQI positively correlated to the total retail sales of social consumer goods, the total volume of retail sales, the greater the consumer enthusiasm is higher, the AQI is higher, the deeper the air pollution will be. This paper tries to seek a time series model to fitting the change trend of Wuhan AQI over time, eventually the ARIMA (1,1,3) model is selected via inspection before the difference of data model, it is concluded that the future within 30 days of short-term forecast. And predict on the next 30 days after March 26,2015 in Wuhan.The AQI is slightly rising steadily state, there is no obvious fluctuation.I hope this article can be used as a government policy, a reference for related academic research.Specific policy for governance haze is imminent, against the background of the conclusion of this article is of significance.At the same time, I also hope that our air quality will be better and better.