Major Snow Disaster Emergency Management Capability Assessment Model And Its Application

In recent years, natural disasters have experienced frequent occurrence in our country, especially major natural disadters, which cause heavy losses to state and people's life and property safety. In 2008 a major snow disaster in south China reached direct economic loss 151.65 billion Yuan. In modern society, with the social progress and people's living standard improving, human beings cannot get rid of natural disasters, so all levels government department must improve coping ability of emergency management of major natural disaster.In China, emergency management is a new topic for all trade in the research. And some achievements in theory have been made. At home and abroad, there are many research literatures about earthquake, urban emergency incident and so on, but little about major snow disaster. In this paper, aiming to the complexity and uncertainty on emergency management capability evaluating of major snow disaster in 2008, it is difficult for the factors-involved in traditional evaluation to adapt the evaluating of major snow disaster. The basis of evaluation system construction about emergency management of snow disaster is in-depth analyzed. Then the evaluation system structure of emergency management capability of major snow disaster is proposed. Firstly, based on full process management theory and analytic hierarchy method in system theory, the emergency management capability set of major snow disaster is constructed. Based on it and combining the characteristics of major snow disaster, the factor set of emergency management capabilities is proposed. Secondly, based on the investigation for the index system of emergency management experts in 30 government departments of Hunan province, the evaluation system structure of emergency management capability of major snow disaster is established.On the basis of the evaluation system structure of emergency management capability, the comprehensive weight of index is confirmed by entropy method and group decision method. The expert group evaluation for the bottom of index system aggregate the comprehensive weight of index.Then the expert group evaluation for the first class of evaluation index system is obtained. The preference vector of the first class evaluation index of expert group is obtained by using group decision method, and then the comprehensive appraisal matrix of evaluated cities is formed. The priority vector of emergency management capability of evaluated cities is derived by using grey comprehensive model.The method of emergency management capability evaluation of major snow disaster is applied to snow disaster case of Hunan province. Then the priority vector of emergency management capability of evaluated cities of Hunan province is obtained. Through the analysis of the score value, the weak link of emergency management of major snow disaster of all levels government department of Hunan province is pointed out and the corresponding solution is proposed. The method has better practicability. At last, advocate human beings to protect environment and save resources, then live in harmony with nature.