| The historical significance of major land use cover change(LUCC)drivers and models lies in their ability to provide insight into the complex relationship between humans and the natural environment,and to help inform policies and practices that can promote sustainable land use in the future.Major LUCC drivers and models are important tools for understanding the historical significance of how humans have changed the natural landscape over time.Geospatial techniques,literature review,and expert opinions are commonly used in the history of science and technology field to provide context and insight into the events,discoveries,and inventions that have shaped the development of science and technology over time.Action and global protocols are institutionalized at the local level;hence,a fifty-year study of land cover changes in Ghana’s Southwestern region is conducted to identify major shifts and new avenues for justifiable growth and development using a mixed-method approach.The approach aided in identifying core and potential land use drivers,using different research strategies for comparisons through confidence level and multicriteria decision analyses;thus,Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).It assembled integrated remote sensing and geoinformatics techniques,expert interviews,and a systematic literature review(SLR)approaches to ascertain the driving forces triggering such unprecedented changes.Landsat imagery 5 MSS,4 and 5 TM,7 ETM+and 8 OLI/TIRS were acquired from the United States Geological Survey’s website.Chapter Three of this study which marks the first empirical chapter delved into the spatial distribution,driving forces and implications associated with land use systems and climate variations in Southwestern Ghana.In this chapter,remote sensing data was utilized to identify the notable land use changes and ramifications that can be observed in the study domain.The chapter covered the core and potential drivers behind the shift in land use and land cover over.This study further used confidence level analysis to propose and test a set of pre-existing theories and a systematic methodology,aimed to substantiate the validity and reliability of the study results.The underpinning concepts for the current study are grounded in frameworks such as the five-capital model,Forest Transition Theory(FTT),land use/land degradation,and sustainable development.The study found change in land use systems in Southwestern Ghana to be immensely driven by economic and socio-political factors.Interestingly,some bio-physical factors have somewhat contributed to this change.Land use analysis revealed a decline in forests(-82.41%)and areas covered by waterbodies(-27.39%).A fundamental drift in built-up(+1288.36%)and farmlands/shrubs(+369.81%)areas were also observed.Change in prevailing microclimatic conditions can be associated with land cover change,considering the impact of core and potential drivers observed over the given period.Results from the confidence level analysis indicated biophysical,cultural and technological factors are considered key drivers despite their“medium-to-very low confidence”in results generated.They could potentially impact climate-sensitive sectors that significantly modify land use systems from the pessimists’and optimists’perspectives.These undesirable consequences could drive resource-use related conflicts and scarcity,poverty,environmental degradation,culture infiltration and so on.Chapter Four examined the historical shifts in land surface temperature(LST),precipitation and some remote sensing variables like the Normalized Difference Vegetative Index(NDVI),The Normalized Difference Built-Up(NDBI)and the Normalized Difference Water Index(NDWI).The study further introduced the contribution rate of change(CRC)analysis to provide context and deeper insights in land cover dynamics through the change detection technique.Here,spatial analysis revealed constant variations in NDVI.NDBI varied or expanded steadily over the given study period.CRC analysis revealed built-up(i.e.,at a rate of 9.00,6.20 and 3.00 for NDBI,NDVI and NDWI,respectively)and areas covered by farmlands/shrubs(i.e.,at a rate of 0.33,0.54 and 0.80 for the given indices)contributed massively to changes in the overall ambience of Southwestern Ghana.This piecemeal of evidence further substantiated built environment and increasing population causing dramatic shift in surface temperature and land use changes.Following the previous chapter,Chapter Five attempted to establish a connection or relationship between the understudied remote sensing variables and climatic parameters;thus,precipitation and LST using autocorrelation and Panda’s implementation-a python data analysis library.Results proved the existence of a positive correlation between NDVI and LST(r=0.214,p<0.0001).NDBI,on the other hand,correlated positively with NDVI(r=0.165,p<0.0001),NDWI(r=0.818,p<0.0001)and LST(R~2=0.71,r=0.266,p<0.0001).In contrast,NDVI,NDBI,NDWI and LST correlated negatively with precipitation.The shred of evidence provided indicates the variations in rainfall patterns in several regions of Southwestern Ghana were caused by a rise in surface temperature.Data produced for this study showed that while temperature rise were consistent throughout the study region,certain places saw positive and negative rainfall amounts.Chapter Six of this study made future predictions(2030–2050)based on current land use trends using MOLUSCE with CA-ANN algorithms.The predicted scenarios revealed tremendous expansion in cultivated lands(+779.2%)over the next 30 years.Over the same time span,it is anticipated that other land use features or classifications(waterbodies(-52%),forests(-65%)(i.e.,a 2.2%reduction rate in natural vegetation annually),and bare land(-75%))will decrease significantly.Surface temperatures,water quality and availability(local hydrology),public health and safety,food security,ecosystem services and energy resources in southwestern Ghana will all be impacted,according to forecasted land use scenarios.In addition,if forests,waterbodies,and other crucial resources are not preserved,the economic and cultural benefits derived from forest resources may be lost.Chapter Seven aimed to propose a collaborative governance framework,as a tool for sustainable land use management in Southwestern Ghana.This“fit-for-purpose”model is aimed at unifying actions,mitigating urban heat,addressing power crisis among stakeholders,and the key drivers identified through this study.Ambiguity(unclear)in roles or responsibilities,competing interests among relevant stakeholders,disengagement of the public in planning and management process,weak governance systems,as well as conflict(power crisis)over management of natural resources remain key factors which jeopardise sustainable land use planning and management,among efficient utilisation of other natural resources.In spite of the factors highlighted,other social,economic and environmental determinants(both climatic and non-climatic)impeding sustainable growth and development were presented,along with strategies to avert or regulate the determinants.The highlighted sustainability strategies dwell on the core characteristics of the proposed construct and the coordination model which are peculiar and suitable for the study’s scope.Standpoints established through this study will enrich basic datasets for future land use planning and assessment of local hydrological cycles.It provides policy guidance amid sustainability concerns on streamlining land use activities in development planning and preservation of forests and river ecosystems that protect flora and fauna to enhance biodiversity and sustainable use of land and water resources. |
