Global Change, Regional Adaptation Study

According to the observed data,the Earth is experiencing significant changes which are characterized by global warming.The latest IPCC assessment report shows that:during the last 100 years(1906-2005),global average surface temperature increased by 0.74℃,which is greater than "the Third Assessment Reort" given. And by the year 2100, global surface temperature is expected to rise by 1.1-6.4℃. This trend is unprecedented over the past ten thousand years before.Global change leads to sea level rise, biodiversity loss,as well as frequent extreme weather events,causing a significant negative impact on socio-economic in the world,even threaten the security of countries or regions. Out of the serious impact on the survival of human society concerns causing by global warming, the international scientific community and national governments (especially the developed countries and those island and coastal countries which are to suffer from rising sea levels in the near future) are beginning to discuss how to response to climate change and to take corresponding countermeasures. Specific research area goes from "prevention"in the 70s to mitigation in the 80s,until now generally accepted "adaptation".Adaptation to climate change is a new theory after numerous lessons learned by human. And the current academic research on adaptation is just confined to some qualitative descriptions and proposed adaptation measures. But the quantitative assessment of adaptation, the model description of research is a blank. This paper undertakes a comprehensive study on the concept, type, framework of adaptation, in order to to fill the blank of this weak research area.This paper provides a very important theoretical meaning for enriching people's global change knowledge and improving people's ability to adapt. Meanwhile, this paper chooses the south of the Qinling Mountains-Shangluo, a "fragile ecological area",as the study area and compares the research results with Xian,which is locating in the north of Qinling Mountains. Through a comparative study of different typical regions,this paper can provide facts and reference for the broader understanding of the facts and the law of revelation.The data of this paper comes from two ways:the meteorological data comes from the Meteorological Bureau,and social-economic data from the Statistical Yearbook of Shangluo.The statistical analysis, qualitative description and quantitative analysis, comparative analysis methods are used in this paper for data processing.Especially on the context of global warming,how Shangluo response to global warming?What is the combined effects of global warming on Shangluo?And the degree of the human ecological system's adaptation in the face of global change. The results show (1)The Shangluo temperature has a rising trend in the nearly 47years.The linear regression equation was Y=0.0133X+12.531,a heating rate of 0.133℃/10a.The rate is higher than average increase in global surface 0.074℃/10a given by the IPCC Fourth Assessment report and lower than China's 0.22℃/10a.And the annual precipitation linear regression equation is:Y=-0.9643X +766.56,which has a significant decreasing trend.In the last 47 years, the average precipitation decreases by about 45.3 mm.The temperature of Shangluo rises while the precipitation decreases.(2)Global change has an adversely impact on Shangluo's agriculture.In the last 47 years,the climate productivity decreases greatly,with the linear regression:Y=-2.3870X+11641.The equation means a 2.387kg/hm2*a decrease of Shangluo's climate productivity. With the warm dry climate and the enhancing evaporation, crop production will be cut due to lack of water and high temperature.(3)The degree of sensitivity reflects different region's "sensitivity" level.The results show that the human ecosystem sensitivity of Shangluo (67.62) is slightly lower than that of Xi'an (67.65).The sensitivity climate-subsystem value of Xian(71.1) is higher than Shangluo's,while lower in human-subsystem than Xian's.In the last 47 years, sensitivity values show a significant decrease trend.Both cities fluctuates similar in trends but different in magnitude. A linear tendency was:YShangluo=-0.6424X+78.233, YXian=-0.6136X+77.777.(4)The degree of adaptation value of physical subsystem in Shangluo(56.5) is higher than that of Xian(50.5).However,due to the advanced technology and economy in Xian,the human ecological system has a strong anti-interference ability when facing climate change.The human subsystem adaptation value of Xian(65.6) is higher than Shangluo(60). In general,Xian's adaptation value(59.5) is slightly higher than Shangluo(58.6).In the context of global warming,it is wise to take effective measures to adapt to climate change.So we should adjust our behaviours and regulate our laws to improve adaptation levels,in order to reduce the negative impact of global change.