Highway Geological Disasters In Gis-based Regional Risk Assessment And Prediction

There are various type geological hazards widely distributed in Chinese western region. Geological hazards, such as landslides, collapse and debris flows cause the most direct impact and the greatest damage. Highway construction and operation, as well as people's lives and properties, are serious threaten by geological hazards. It not only restricts sustainable and stable development of road traffic, but also becomes a major constraint to the region national economic development. It has great significance to the geological hazards prevention and reduction that making research on geological hazards assessment, prediction and prevention technologies for the whole region or along the highway, creating a web-based prediction and warning system, realizing the unification of temporal and spatial prediction for geological hazards.Based on actual survey and data to highway hazards in Guizhou province, this paper made in-depth research on the relationship between various impact factors and temporal and spatial distribution of geological hazards, created a scientific and practical risk assessment and prediction method for regional geological hazards, and realized the automation, intelligence and network for geological hazards analysis, evaluation and prediction. The main achievements are as follows:(1) Spatial susceptibility zoning of geological hazards. The study established a evaluation index system, quantized the evaluation factors, achieved spatial susceptibility zoning for regional geological hazards in Guizhou province through making a deep research on the evaluation index system, evaluation model and methods of hazard zonation.(2) Geological hazards weather warning criterion model. Researched on the dynamic relationship between geological hazards and the course of rainfall, established an index system of weather early warning and forecasting and created a prediction model based on rainfall. Many factors, such as geological environment change and rainfall parameters, are combined to establish early weather warning criterion model in different geographical and geological conditions. (3) Highway geological hazards zonation evaluation and prediction system. Different surveying and monitoring information were analyzed and managed comprehensively through integrating relevant mathematical models with ArcGIS Engine that based on the component technology. In order to realize the aim of disaster prevention and reduction decision-making, highway geological hazards zonation evaluating and forecasting system based on geographic information system is established.(4) Hazards information remote distribution. WebGIS-based highway geological hazards monitoring, analysis, evaluation, prediction and early warning system in Guizhou province is established. Making electronic maps as the main body, region-road- hazard as the main line, the paper established a multi-faceted geological hazards monitoring and forecasting system through combining environment-weather conditions, realized the integration remote distribution of geological hazards normal information, monitoring information, weather information, early warning information from a view of region-road line-hazard site.