Prediction Of Solar Activity

In this thisis, we summarized predictions of solar activity which include the alert and short-term prediction, the mid-term prediction and the long-term prediction of solar activity. Then, we introduce the results of our studies.In Chapter I mainly overviewed are the content and according methods of the alert and short-term prediction for the solar activity, and introduced is the present study state of the alert and short-term prediction of the solar activity. The conditions of the mainly study insititutions and organizations are provided as well.In Chapter II, the present study state of the mid-term prediction of solar activity is introduced, and the conditions of the mainly study insititutions and organizations are provided as well.The present study state of the long-term prediction of solar activity is introduced in Chapter III, and the contditions and methods are provided as well.In Chapter IV, a method is proposed to give the prediction of the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers of a progressing cycle. The remainder of the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers of cycle 23 is given by using the method, and a comparision of this mthod with the similar cycle method is given as well.A basis for the determination of minimum time of a solar cycle and a basis for the determination of maximum time of a solar cycle are given. The minimum periods of solar cycles 13 and 14 and the maximum periods of solar cycles 14 and 19 are detected. The time of the minimum between solar cycles 12 and 13 is recommended to be in November 1889.9 (1889.9), and the time of the minimum between solar cycles 13 and 14 should occur in November 1901 (1901.9). The maximum time of solar cycle 14 seemingly occurs in February 1906 (1906.1), and the maximum time of solar cycle 19 should be in March 1958 (1958.2).