Earthquake Landslide Probability Risk Analysis And Preliminary Forecast

Our country is mountainous and seismic. Even there were many strong earthquakes happened. Slopes failures during earthquakes have claimed a great number of casualties and have been a major cause of damage to structures and facilities constructed on or in the vicinity of the slopes. The scale of such landslides on natural slopes can be large enough to devastate entire villages or towns.In order to prevent hazards, the earthquake-induced landslide should be forecasted. At present, the dynamical stability analysis is widely used, but it is not available to predict earthquake-induced landslides for big area or many sites. The technical committee for " earthquake geotechnical engineering " advised that the prediction be divided three steps. Thus, the precision from low to high could be satisfied for different requirement.The earthquake-induced landslide is a probability. But the first-step predict is only given a rule, in which the probability was ignored. It is just the purpose of this paper to improve that. .This paper reviews the landslides caused by earthquake in china. The earthquake-induced landslides are mainly located in west of china, the relationship between the seismic parameters and earthquake-induced landslides show that: Landslides usually occur in the area of intensity VD or higher. There are almost no landslides when earthquake is smaller than M=4.0, so M=4.0 is regarded as landslides threshold magnitude; both the maximum area(s) of landslides caused by earthquake and the maximum distance(R) of landslides from the epicenter are associated with the magnitude. With the relation between M-R, this paper summarily predicts earthquake -induced landslides. And, for different requirement, taking 20, 30, 50 and 100 years as the prediction time, this paper predicts earthquake-induced landslides in Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, and gives zonation maps respectively.