Precipitation Probability Forecast Method And Its Application

This paper establishes a new suit of objective and subjective precipitation probability forecasting system. Based on numerical analysis forecasting products, according as dynamics and statistics application and combined with local actual weather of lining city and forecasters' experience, the system synthetizes multifold ways and use Real-time workstation operation system and integrated decision-making system as main forecasting decision-making mode. The system establishes conditional probability of multilevel precipitation under multifold method combination, computes regression by using the least square method and finally gets compositive emergence probability of multilevel precipitation under mancomputer interactive form.The paper adopts MOS technique, selects second genes and coinstantaneous correlation analysis having meteorological meaning, substitutes optimum subclass regression for traditional gradual regression, helps forecasters make forecasting decision through mancomputer interactive form and gets forecasting value of multilevel precipitation probability.The features of the system are of easy operation, convenient to be used and of high robotization. It can not only use computer select and deal with all sorts of data automatically but also use mancomputer interactive form. Because it considers objectivity of weather forecast and fully absorbs forecasters' experience, it is easily accepted by most forecasters and applied in practical operation work. Through a period of practical application, the accurate rate of prediction is high. Especially for small probability precipitation which is difficultly predicted with usual forecasting tools, it has good forecasting ability.The paper analyzes and researches a new generation of evaluation methods of all sorts of weather service benefits which takes precipitation probability of weather forecast as important factors and main serving means. It emphasizes introducing three kinds of evaluation models and methods of weather service benefits. It starts with computing potential economic benefits and gets optimum decision-making. It takes example for statistic decision-making theory to explain material practice.