| By apparent temperature model based on body heat balance theory and suitable in China, using outputs from Meso-Scale Numerical Forecast Model MM5v36 and Atmospheric Radiation Transmission Model MODTRAN3.0, apparent temperature every 1 hour , 3 hours and 6 hours were forecasted and their application in traveling and dressing meteorology were analyzed. Respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease and cerebrovascular disease forecast models were established on the basis of computation of daily apparent temperature in Nanjing from year of 1990 to year of 1999 and Jinhua from 1998 to 2000. Models of MM5v36 and MODTRAN3. 0 ran in operational system LINUX7. 2 and WINDOWS2000 respectively. By FORTRAN90, EXCEL, GrADS and SAS , I nearly completed data processing related to paper study. And front-job of part statistics were done by means of MICAPS. Main fruits were listed in below.1. Using outputs of ground temperature , vapor pressure, wind speed and low cloudage .middle cloudage as well as high cloudage from MM5v36, and ground direct radiation and out-going scattered radiation from MODTRAN3. 0, apparent temperature of old people , young people as well as mid-aged people in Beijing (116.47 E, 39.80 N) , Lanzhou (103.88 E, 36.05 N) and Shanghai (121.46 E, 31.41 N) were forcasted. In the process of computation, three different environments called room, shaded in out and out were taken into account. When apparent temperature every 1 hour and 3 hours was forecasted, the day was 1st and 2nd , June , 1998. And day of computation of them every 6 hours was 1st, 2nd , 3rd, June , 1998. Validation of results from models proved forecast of apparent temperature to be feasible. And apparent temperature at every one o' clock could be found in the table of forecast.2. Then day change tendency of apparent temperature in three cities was researched. And difference in the highest apparent temperature, lowest apparent temperature every 1 hour of three different age people was investigatedrespectively. Movement trend of apparent temperature every 6 hours and body feeling corresponding to apparent temperature every 3 hours were also analyzed. Then compare on difference in apparent temperature in three cities at the same time were carried out.3. Apparent temperature mentioned above was regarded as basic factor. And wind speed as well as precipitation was considered to be assistant factors. Traveling comfort degree every 1 hour and 6 hours in the three cities from 1st to 3rd in June , 1998 was forecasted.4. The equation used for computing dressing thickness drawn by Yongzhong-Yu was described in below: y=0. 61* (25. 8-T.) .In the equation, numerical value of 25.8 and Tawere all explained as apparent temperature. Putting apparent temperature every 3 hours and 6 hours in it , we could forecast dressing thickness.5. Daily apparent temperature in Nanjing and Jinhua was calculated. Aiming at the problem on taking no account of relation of forecast factors and instability of regression results caused by selected factors with no orthonormalization which would bring out error to computational results, monadic linear regression analysis and nature orthonormalization function as well as stepwise regression were integrated to establish forecast models of cold in Nanjing and upper respiratory tract infection, cerebral hemorrhage as well as cerebral infarction in Jinhua. And forecast ability was compared between the models built by selecting factors as well as orthonormalization and the other models built by stepwise regression analysis directly. The comparative result was forecast ability of model by monadic linear regression analysis and nature orthonormalization function as well as stepwise regression was stronger than the models by direct stepwise regression analysis. |
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