Risk Evaluation Research On Commercial Real Estate Investment Based On Asymmetric Information

Along with the residential real estate market tends to saturation, large funds has enteredthe field of commercial real estate investment, commercial real estate is becoming a newinvestment hot point to the national real estate investment. Commercial real estate plays animportantroleinpromotingtheeconomyandsocialdevelopment;inrecent yearsitdevelopedrapidly, and has a large market demand and huge upside. However, as commercial real estatestarted late, the relevant theory and policy is still not perfect, the complexity of itsdevelopment model and the blindness of investment, and because of the asymmetricinformation,thereisstillhighriskincommercialrealestateinvestmentprocess.Consequently,it is necessary to analyze and evaluate the risk of commercial real estate investment; it hasimportant theoretical andpractical significancetostudythecommercial real estateinvestmentriskanalysisandevaluation.With the help of home and abroad theories and methods on real estate investment riskresearch, this thesis defined commercial real estate and commercial real estate investment,analyzed the development of our commercial real estate status, characteristics and problems,described the major investment and development patterns and characteristics of commercialreal estate. From the view of developer, this thesis has systematically analyzed theperformance and causes of asymmetric information in commercial real estate investment, andits impact on the commercial real estate investment. The paper also identified the risk of thewholeprocessunderasymmetricinformation,classifiedandsummarizedthecharacteristicsofcommercial real estate investment risks, built a commercial real estate investment riskevaluation index system. Then through contrasting the advantages and disadvantages ofcommon risk assessment methods, the paper selected the combination of the AnalyticHierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy evaluation, multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, to evaluate the commercial real estate investment risks, and established themulti-levelfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmodelundertheasymmetricinformation.Finally,the paper took Times Square of Xi'an Pearl project as an example, evaluated its investmentrisks, validated the model is reasonable and feasible, and proposed some measures andrecommendations.The paper conducted a preliminary exploration study of commercial real estateinvestment risk and evaluation, established a commercial real estate investment riskevaluationmodel,andcanprovidesomereferencetodecision-making.