| The coastal resorts of Haikou City is as the research object in this paper. Firstly, the data information about land use and cover changes (LUCC)of the coastal tourist areas in Haikou City from 1991 to 2008 has been extracted, selecting remote sensing image of 1991,2001,2008 as the main data source, basing on the spectrum characteristics of ground objects, using the object-oriented information extraction technology. Secondly, spatial characteristics of LUCC and the transformation process of land use types in the coastal tourist area of Haikou City nearly 18 years has been analised in support of GIS and its landscape pattern has been studied combined with the basic theory of landscape ecology and method, the trend of land use change in next 20 years has been forecasted. Lastly, a comprehensive evaluation about effects on the regional ecological environment and on land use change is conducted through establishing environmental impact evaluation index system with "pressure - state - response" (PSR) index system model. The results showed that:1. The classification accuracy of LUCC type classification reaches above 85%, Kappa index reaches above 0.79, using object-oriented information extraction method based on remote sensing data preprocessing. Because of this high accuracy, it is a more effective information extraction method.2. The main coastal tourist areas of Haikou City are dominated by farmland and construction sites, whose sum area is about 3/4 of the entire study area, forested land and water accounts for 6.47% and 14.54% respectively, wetlands and unutilized land for 2.19% and 1.92% respectively, which are the smallest proportion of land types.3. From 1991 to 2008, the increasing rate of built-land area is 1.09%, the decreasing of farmland is at an annual rate of 0.73%, both of which are most obvious. In our study area, the comprehensive degree of land use is high and increasing each year, built-land are expanding markedly, water area increases, farmland area has a significant decreasing tendency, forested land area decreases, unutilized land area decreases sharply but wetlands area decreases slightly. Their conversion direction is mainly farmland and forested land, unutilized land mostly transforms into built-land. In space, the conversions of various land types focus on the land near coastal areas.4. From 1991 to 2008, diversity index of the coastal tourist area in Haikou City increases, the degree of landscape fragmentation decreases, some landscape types tend to gather and some types of landscape elements to spread. The features on spatial dynamic change process about the center of gravity of plaques of landscape types are clear, which of built-land expands toward the southwest with 1.84km; which of forested land retreats toward the southwest with 7.55km, which of farmland shifts toward the east with 1.38km, which of wetland landscape shifts to the northeast with only 0.4km, which of water landscape shifts to the southeast about 3.66km, which of unutilized land shifts to the northeast with 2.16km.5. According to Markov prediction, in the next 20 years or so, the area of forested land, farmland, wetland and unutilized land will continue to decline, whose area will be 2489.47 hm~2, 21474.88 hm~2, 1233.37 hm~2, 756.10 hm~2 in 2029, built-land will continue to increase to 24605.34 hm~2 and water slowly increase to 10870.14 hm~2. The variation range of each land use types in the study area is the largest between 2008 and 2015, and the variation range will be weaking in next years after 2015.6. The eco-environmental comprehensive effect index?of this study area is 0.582 in 2008, its ecological environment is in general state and ecosystem service functions have been degraded. Forested land and wetland environment is in a ideal state, water ecosystem in good condition, farmland ecological environment in a general state, ecological environment of unutilized land is in a poor state, the ecological environment of built-land in a poorest state. |
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