| After the Second World War, with the collapse of the colonial system, most former colonies and atributary states got independence and converted into developing countries.What these nations confronted urgently was how to find a way to develop the economy. At the same time, the economic reconstruction and developing problem gained much attention of the economists. During the past half century, there were so many academic explorations and practice development. Moreover,various kinds of strategies for trade and economic development have emerged. The development results of Asia, Africa and Latin America differ in thousands of ways. The trade strategies we usually mentioned such as import-substituted and export-orientated are acctually focusing on the whole development in the open economy rather than just in the trade field. Moreover, because the development of economy and that of industry are connected with each other closely, also, the adjustment of the industrial structure involves the problem of resource distribution, all of these strategies are pursuing the industrial development without a exception to enhance the competitive power in the global market.Although the kind of trade strategy is limited due to the complicated situation in the real world, it is very difficult to select an appropriate trade strategy. After the establishment of our country, we applied the Planed Economy and Import-Substitued strategy because of the special situation in the domestic and abroad. These strategies laid a solid foundation for the industy field and improved the military might. However, we paid a lot for all of these achievements. After the economic reform and opening to the outside world, our country has formed the mode of market enconomy system and export-oriented gradually, which drived the rapid rising of foreign trade, upgrading of the industrial and trade structure, improving of the employment stiuation and the increasement of foreign exchange reserve. Our country has become one of the most important countries in the world.. Nevertheless, as time passing by, the negative effect of the export-oriented strategy is more and more evident, which is embodied in the following aspects. Foreign Trade for Existence Degrees is too high which cause the limited capacity to prevent risk. The extensive mode of trade growth results in the low net benefits. The trade frication is very frequent. The unbalanced development in reginal economies is severe day by day. The enviroomental pollution and resource waste are more and more serious. The global finacial and economic crisis caused by the Sub-prime problem has a serious effect on our country. The amount of trade and the economic growthment reclined sharply, which has embodied the disadvantage of the insufficient domestic demand and the export-oriented mode. So, it is necessary to reflect and adjust these strategies at this development stage.The major part of my research is about the adjustment of chinese export-oriented strategy, and also some problems related to industry development and structure adjustment. The first key point is to reflect the export-oriented strategy from the aspect of industrial structure. Firstly, the writer compared the international states and then pointed that the general structure of our industry is unreasonable. The writer quoted the positive analysis to explain the problems exsiting in our country, such as the exceeding of the industrial structure over the demand structure, the relatively high proportion of the second industy. Finally, the writer concluded that the export-oriented strategy was one of the main reasons of these problems. Then, the writer again emphasized the urgency and neccesity of the adjustment of the export-oriented strategy from two aspects.The second key point is the adjustment of the trade policy and development strategy.In the first place, the writer indicated that the selection of strategy should focus on the objective basis,namely the internal and domestic elements.Moreover, the writer analyzed the comparative advantage development strategy put forward by Lin Yifu, elaborated the theorical meaning and uncovered the difference between this strategy and the export-oriented strategy, also the pre-condition---relatively free international trade and mature market machanism. The writer pointed that we have not reach the pre-condition yet in our real life, and put forward the opinion that the comparative advantage development strategy was sort of idealism from the analysis of political situation and interest arrangement.At last, the writer proposed that we should take the strategy of Combination of Comparative advantage-following development strategy and Partial catch-up which was suitable for the stable economic development. The wrier cited the other scholar's opinion and expressed the meaning and logic by theorical model. Meanwhile, the writer compared some other country's experience and got some feasible measures.According to the above opinion, the writer elaborates the problem in this paper. There are five chapters in this paper.The first chapter is about the Literature Review. The first part of this chapter explains the formation and convertion of trade strategy in the world. Then, it recalls the evolution process of trade strategy in our country. Finally, it concludes and commentes on the disagreement between the experts regarding the export-oriented strategy. The latter part briefly introduces the corelation between the industrial structure and economic development, and its relationship with the trade and foreign capital.The second chapter is about the Sub-prime crisis and its effect on the global economy, and the writer takes a long view of the new global economic situation confronted by our country. The writer also uses specific data to expain the profoud impact caused by the Sub-prime crisis, and analyzes the reason from the aspect of unbalanced global economy. At last, the writer expresses the concerns toward the transition and adjustment process.The third part is a key point of this thesis. By the evaluation of the export-oriented strategy, the writer considered the problem from the aspect of industrial adjustment.The third chapter evaluats the results of the export oriented strategy applied in our country and reflectes from this aspect. The writer gives credit for the strategy from many aspects, namely the growthment of trade volum, the upgrading of structure, the achievement of the attracted foreign capital and technology, the employment improvement and the bettering of institutional environment.At the same time, the writer also puts forward some doubts in some other aspects, such as the high Foreign Trade for Existence Degrees etc.The forth chapter is the major and innovating part of this paper. Firstly the writer explains the objective foundation of the selection between different trade strategies, which is based on the three factors---the situation of the resource endownment, the volum of the domestic market and the global economic enviroment. It points out that the selection should be based on the realistic situation and also comply with the trend of global economy. Then, it puts forward the direction of the ajustment creatively---- Combination of Comparative advantage-following development strategy and Partial catch-up. Finally, it uncovers the logistic and connotation by the use of theory model. At last, the writer compares the experience of Germany, Latin America and some eastern Asian countries, studies the feasibility of the Combination of Comparative advantage-following development strategy and Partial catch-up, and suggests some measures to apply.As the final part of the paper, the writer recommends that we should carry on the structure adjustment and institutional reform in time. The writer elaborates on the method of industrial adjustment from three aspects:enhance the foundamental position of Primary Industry, promote the Secondary Industry and speed up the Service Industry. He also emphasizes the full use of comparative advantage in different areas and the important meaning of the acceleration of industrial transition.The creative point and backwardFirstly, there are many researches about the selection and adjustment of our trade strategy, but the study from the industrial development and adjustment is very rare. Therefore, it's a creative point of this paper. It analyzed the effect of recent finacial crysis, and from this study, the writer reflects the export-oriented strategy.Then, the paper gave some difficulties that we may encounter in the pratice of the comparative advantage-following development strategy, which explained the neccesity profoundly. On this basis, the writer proposed the Combination of Comparative advantage-following development strategy and Partial catch-up, and discussed its feasibility from historical experience.In the end, due to the limited capability, the main backward of this thesis is the deficient analysis to the effect which is caused by the Comparative advantage-following development strategy and Partial catch-up to the macroeconomic development, as well as the inadequent theorial support. |
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