Research On Issues Of Supplier Evaluation And Selection Based On D-S Evidence Theory

Supplier evaluation and selection is seriously important for enterprise's operations and management. And more competitive suppliers can form a strategic alliance to enhance corporate performance in many aspects, such as reducing supply chain risk, through the participation of suppliers reduce costs and continuously improve product quality and to achieve zero defects and so on. Supplier evaluation is the performance of suppliers, from business development to find suitable suppliers, forming strategic alliances. Through the process of supplier evaluation, enterprise analyzes the performance of suppliers, and then finds suitable suppliers to form strategic alliances.Supplier evaluation and selection problem is a complex multi-objective group decision making. As a number of indicators'value is fuzzy, uncertainty, random even unknown, decision-makers are difficult to give accurate assessment of the information. Besides, many uncertainties exist in the process of the evaluation. Evidence theory is a probable reasoning theory, which is mainly applied for handling the synthesis of fuzzy and uncertain information. The author applies D-S Evidence Theory, Fuzzy Theory, and Subjective Evidential Reasoning to complete a theoretical exploration on supplier selection.First, through the research of Evidence Theory and Evidential Reasoning model, we analyze the person's decision-making process, and then propose some rules to handle the conflict experts'opinions. These conflict opinions imply that they are complementary. Because some raw evidences supported by experts are one-sided, the DS combination rule will conclude error results in dealing with high conflict information. In order to reduce the influences of the one-sided evidences, we analyze the mechanism that people handle different evidences and propose that different evidences of different strength have different impacts on the people. The degrees of belief given by experts are discounted by the subjective discounting operator, and then the rule of combination in evidence theory is employed to combine the combining utility beliefs. Through these rules, we can effectively handle these conflict opinions. Secondly, considering the complicated and uncertain factors in supplier evaluation and selection, a multi-level model with evaluation criteria is constructed based on D-S evidence theory. By the way of analyzing literature and referencing standards for quality management audit, we construct different sets of evaluation indicators to evaluate potential suppliers and official suppliers. Then, we propose a supplier evaluation model based on D-S evidence theory. Finally, numerical example is used to simulate the general idea, basic and detailed methods of this article.