Research Of General Assessment Of Managers Based On Theory Of Evidence

Considering the social background and real situations, it doesn't appear as a surprise that the General Assessment of managers has become a hot issue recently. As we know, success of an organization largely depends on its managers'quality and ability, so the General Assessment methods and techniques with good effectiveness are required to help realizing the perfect match between employee and position.There are two basic problems existing in the field of assessment of talents, one is about its content, another is about its method. As a kind of imprecise inference, talents assessment suffers from a lot of uncertainties including the cognitive insufficiency, fuzziness, incompleteness and randomness, because itself involve many assessment subjects, assessment objectives, assessment indexes and fuzzy language variables. Considering the fact that the traditional talents assessment method is professional in the solvency of variable's randomness but inefficient in handling the multi-uncertainties, the evidential reasoning method is introduced in the paper to solve the problems arising from the multi-uncertainties evaluation with uncertainties in this paper, we aim to decide the possibilities for this new method to be used in the General Assessment of managers. In addition, we try to take advantage of it to excise indexes exploration. On the assessment data according to combination rule, to excise distribution evaluation on the assessment objects with the rough assessment result, to excise evidential assemble on the evaluative information under the uniform frame of discernment. The conclusions reveal as follows:On the foundation of literature review and interview, initial discernment of frame is setted, which includes different kinds of evaluative factors. The result shows that evidential theory is capable of filtering, simplifying integrating the initial indexes, lowering the level of indexes'uncertainties during the selection process.In the General Assessment of managers with the characteristic of systematicness, hierarchy, multi-attribute and subjectivity, AHP method is able to obtain the balances of evaluating indexes and the rationality of evaluators' decision matrix in a effective and flexible way.The evidential reasoning(ER) method applied in talents assessment consists of five steps:a, the establishment of hierarchy structural modeling about the management evaluation; b, the determination of weights and assessment grades for the indexes on different grades; c, the ER distributed modeling framework for the evaluating objectives; d, the horizontal integration of evaluators' assessment information by ER combination rules; e, the vertical integration of evaluating indexes on different grades be ER combination rules; f, the determination of evaluating ranking by the utility interval of ER.ER method enjoys the reasonable mechanism of expressing and processing the uncertainties, which helps a lot in decreasing the evaluating uncertainties and system error so that the precision of evaluating result can be enhanced.The comprehensive evaluating methods based on ER have easy rules on the consistency of evaluators and permit the necessary conflicts among the assessment information from different evaluators to prevent the information loss.