Evaluation Study Of The Value Of Commercial Real Estate Projects Based On Real Options

There is a huge investment risk in Commercial real estate project development process. And how to accurately assess the value of the project is generally concerned about for a commercial real estate developers. The traditional methods of investment decision, which usually commercial real estate developers used, often can not handle the problems of commercial real estate investment, such as flexibility, irreversibility, uncertainty and other problems. However, Real Option makes up for the traditional investment decisions method in an uncertain market environment and provides a method to research the value of projects better.Real options approach is one of the academic research hot Issues in the field of the current project investment decisions. Recently more papers at home and abroad discussed real options method, but less research enterprise application level. And researches on the real estate investment decision-making based on B-S model delay options and phased development options. According to characteristics of commercial real estate project and the previous basis, this thesis researches the deferral option of the commercial real estate which based on jump-diffusion process.Firstly, this thesis introduces the real options theory and researches related. Secondly, the author built the real options analysis framework in the commercial real estate projects, through the real options analysis in the commercial real estate projects. Then bring in the Poisson processes to describe strategic information of commercial real estate project development process which has the impact on the option value and built real option model. Then, this thesis combines practical case to illustrate the application of real options analysis framework. The author uses the traditional NPV method and B-S model for comparative analysis to verify the objectivity of the model and to carry on a sensitivity analysis of option value. In the last, the author gives some practical application suggestions, which have some guidance and practical effect on the commercial real estate projects in China.