| In recent years,the power of macroeconomic regulation increases gradually in residential real estate,and the strategic layout of real estate development enterprise gradually translates from the residential real estate to commercial real estate.Commercial real estate has an unprecedented opportunity.At the same time,more risks are discovered by developers.How to make scientific and rational investment decision under the influence of many uncertain factors is an important issue for real estate development enterprises.The traditional investment decision methods cannot meet the needs of managers.How to make investment decisions more efficient,become priority for managers.Real options derived from financial option,as a new project decision-making method,has the advantage which is the traditional discounted cash flow method does not have,also is the best way to solve the problem of uncertainty.Now many scholars have used it in high uncertainty field,such as resource development,R&D projects,strategic decision-making,high-tech projects,and which has achieved good results.In recent years,foreign scholars have lead real options methods into commercial real estate,trying to solve the problem of uncertainty present in the project,but the domestic research is less.Real option method is applied to the uncertainty of higher commercial real estate in this article,which is analyzed on the basis of the characteristics of commercial real estate and quantifies the value of management decisions,helping investors make scientific investment decisions.Introduction of real options method not only fills the deficiency of the traditional decision method,but also promotes the investment decision-making system of commercial real estate industry to be more scientific and effective in our country,which has very important significance.Commercial real estate projects have more high-risk characteristics,irreversibility,flexibility and uncertainty by contrast with the residential real estate.The traditional investment decision methods can't solve the problems brought about by these features,while the real option method fully consider the characteristics of these on the value of the project,not only make up for a lack of the traditional method,but as a new way to solve the problem.Real option approach considers project not only contains the net present value should also have the option,while the traditional methods only consider the former,so it may miss the potential project.The paper mainly studies the value of the delay options in commercial real estate projects.In order to calculate project delay value,B-S model is built which is suitable for the features of commercial real estate.Finally,the paper used case study method,analyzed the different conclusions drawn by traditional methods and real options method to verify the validity of the model.It is divided into five chapters in the paper.The first part is an introduction,about the research background and significance,research literature review,writing ideas,research methods and the paper frame.The second part is an overview of commercial real estate development projects and investment decision-making theory.Firstly it introduced the common characteristics of commercial real estate and investment decision theory and method.Secondly it introduces the characteristics of commercial real estate investment decision and the factors that influence investment decisions.The third part is mainly about how introduce the real options method into the commercial real estate investment decision,it begins to analyze the advantages of real options method which can make up the shortage of traditional methods,then analyzes options method applicability.The fourth part builds a real option model,this chapter is the key of the thesis chapters.It is based on the features of commercial real estate investment decision-making to modify the B-S model.Then the model combines fuzzy mathematics with the real options,improving the parameters of B-S model.The fifth part is a specific application of real options model,there are five parts,respectively is LHL shopping plaza background,LHL shopping plaza project analysis,LHL shopping plaza project model application,the sensitivity of the real option value analysis and case summary.In recent years,domestic experts and scholars have begun to apply the real option method to the real estate investment decision,but it is seldom used in the field of commercial real estate.Real options method is applied to commercial real estate projects decisions in this article,improving the commercial real estate investment decisions system,which makes investment decisions more scientific and effective.While the classic B-S model is modified,and parameters of the model has been handled with fuzzy mathematical theory.The method combined with the actual case study is innovative,which has a strong practical significance. |
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