Empirical Research On Relationship Between Foreign Trade And Economic Growth Of Sichuan Province

The most important representative of Britain's new school of economics Robertson made the proposition:"foreign trade is the engine of economic growth," in 1937. This point has been basically and widely accepted. However, In the development of foreign trade theory and economic growth theory, the influence of foreign trade and economic growth is comparatively complicated, What kind of foreign trade mode to chose comes to promote the economic growth is different for each contry. Since the reform and opening-up, foreign trade of Sichuan Province make enormous progress in absolute quantity, increment, export quality, product structure.Have not merely offered the solid foundation for improvement of development of the national economy in Sichuan Province, and develop valuable experience and good demonstration for the other foreign trade of landlocked province.First, this text will explain the relation between foreign tade and economic growth by using the next three theories:trade promote theory, trade compromise theory and trade hinder theory.The text will explain these theories form three expects:theory source, function direction and mechanism of influencing.The explanation has basically affirmed the facilitation from foreign trade to economic growth.Finally,according to the international and domestic research documents about foreign trade and economic growth in recent years,I attempt to find a correct method to explain the relation of foreign trade and economic growth.We analyze two kinds of different principles of Strategic trade policy principle--inport substitution and export orientation and selected specific industry, The final policy result should support these remarkably technical overflow industry as well as those enterprise which can strengthens our country's profit and reduce the foreign competitor strength..we first carry on the textual material from making a description on the Sichuan basic economical trade target.And I describe the textual material according to domestic and overseas the two foreign trade's local distribution, the Sichuan foreign trade's development is mainly relies on the ChengDu,MianZhu and DeYang area.Those area has the good developed manufacturing industry foundation,convenience infrastructural facilities as well as can the talented person superiority, therefore those area develop into economical trade center in Sichuan.By looking through the trade volume, we can find out that the trade partners have experienced a quick development and the enhancement process since 1998,and the trade of American, Japanese, Hong Kong rising momentum is fierce,but other contries such as France and Australia have maintained a the low level in the same field.It is noteworthy that the trade development between SiChan and those countries such as India and South Korea is very quick.,so it will be useful for developing the future new marke in SiChuan.Regarding the Sichuan foreign trade situation, I analyze from the pattern of enterprises, the type of trading structure and the product mix three. We can see, the Sichuan privately operated collective enterprise export volume speed-up was very quick in recent years,those enterprises has strong development potential, but the Foreign-funded enterprise and the State-owned business's import volume speed up by very quikly.The enterprise type of trade is Constituted by the general trade, the volume of other type of trading is mainly low.In the trade product mix is mainly the mechanical and electrical products, and the high-tech product trade is auxiliary.The declining trend of agricultural.What needs to point out especially is that, in 2008, under the influence of the world financial crisis and Wenchuan big earthquake, the reason why the Sichuan foreign trade turnover maintains the high speed rising and the trade structure optimizes continually, because the Sichuan foreign trade development has the very strong characteristic,that is by using the characteristic industrial development to promote foreign trade development, then to promote economic growth.Next, this research selects neoclassic growth model to carry on the estimate by using revised the Palestinian Lhasa-spends the formula,which has overcome the problems about a series of overestimations or the underestimate question in using Keynes identical equation.Through useing cooperates entire, and Granger causes and effects examination quantitative methods to study the Sichuan foreign trade and the economic growth relations, obtains that the Sichuan foreign trade, especially the export growth,have obvious effect on economic growth.But imports growth influences economic growth through influencing the employment and the capital storage quantity increasing. In the real diagnosis foundation, this research further proposes the strategy of developing the Sichuan foreign trade from industrial structure's angle.Finally, this article utilizes the kneading board data to estimate Sichuan foreign trade area distrubution by using quantitative analysis.Unifing 2003-2008 data and selecting the Sichuan main 31 trade partner, I carry on the kneading board to return the operation,finally carring the analysis separately on the influence of foreign trade to Sichuan economic growth's influence direction and the influence degree.Obtaining four types of country:exported & Imports, the export remarkable, the import remarkable and exports & Import not remarkable country.It is can be seen that we should pay more attention on the developing country import and export, but in the proces of carring trade with some developed countries, it can bring the obvious forward influence by no means for the Sichuan economic growth..This research's most major characteristic is utilizing the massive foreign trade data to conduct the empirical study, from trade influence, economic growth influence, the Sichuan inland area trade distribution, the Sichuan foreign trade nationality distribution the four aspect,using the quantitative analysis and the qualitative analysis at the sametime. This research has carried on the detailed literature summary of each part, using advanced econometrics method, analyzing the Sichuan foreign trade present situation, analyzing the advantages and diavantages of Sichuan foreign trade, finally develops the strategy suggestion.